312
FXUS61 KRLX 171311
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
811 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LINGERS INTO TUESDAY. TURNING
VERY COLD NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 810 AM MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROSPER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING, SO OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER, SNOW
SHOWERS NO LONGER POSE CONCERN FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS,
SO THEREFORE ALLOWED THOSE SPOTS TO EXPIRE AT THIS HOUR.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINE UPDATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS A SLEW OF HEADLINES (SNOW, WIND, FLOOD) REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
SNOW BANDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE WILL START TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST. THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE MID AFTERNOON, BUT POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME AREAS CAN
RECEIVE TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BY
12Z LITTLE TO NONE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND ONLY A FEW
MORE TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE HAVE FROZE OVER WET SPOTS WHICH CAN LEAD
TO SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAY AND WALKWAYS.
GUSTY CONDITONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER IT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS DAY ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO 25MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS AND UP TO 40MPH+ IN THE
HIGHEST RIDGES AND PEAKS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
TAPER DOWN BY EARLY MORNING, BUT WILL STILL BE NON-DIURNAL
MEANING WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AS USUAL AND STILL BE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL AID
IN COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERCOMING THE DECENT MIXING DUE TO
HIGHER SURFACE WIND.
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, WILL NOT SURPASS THE FREEZING
MARK TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO THE TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WITH LITTLE
CLOUDS IN THE SKY, A LOT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE
IF CERTAIN AREAS DECOUPLE, BUT WITH THE WINDS THEY WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP ANY FURTHER THAN WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED WIND, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DOWN TO -17 DEGREES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHY
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
DUE TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL AND SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS INTO THE LATE MORNING MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT ITS PROPER
TIME OF 12Z AND NOT BE DROPPED SOONER. SOME OF THE COUNTIES IN
ADVISORIES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THE WINTER STORM WILL EXPIRE THE SAME TIME FOR THE
HIGHER PARTS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE IN THE MID AFTERNOON WHEN VALUES WILL START
TO SINK BELOW CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS.
DESPITE SOME PARTIAL SUN, N-NW'LY BREEZES WILL KEEP US MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL, WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20
DEGREES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND OUR FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID-30S
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS INTO OUR SW VA COUNTIES.
THIS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN AN INTERESTING SYSTEM TO SEE HOW THE
FORECAST HAS EVOLVED, AS SO MUCH HAS DEPENDED ON THE POTENTIAL
PHASING BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL US. A FASTER
TROUGH WITH STRONG PHASING COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHILE A LACK OF PHASING
LIKELY LEADS TO LESSER SNOWFALL.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE LEANING
TOWARDS THE FEATURES NOT PHASING WELL, AT LEAST NOT OVER OUR
REGION, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN
SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. BUT EVEN IF WE MAY NOT
GET A 'BLOCKBUSTER' SNOWSTORM AROUND MIDWEEK, THERE IS STILL A
GOOD CHANCE OF A DECENT, IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED FURTHER
THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO.
MODELS ARE A BIT SPLIT ON HOW FAST PRECIP COMES IN, AS SOME
SHOW A BIT OF SNOW SPREADING IN TO EASTERN KY AND THE TUG FORK
BY MIDNIGHT, WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT OFF A BIT AFTER THAT.
REGARDLESS, BY SUNRISE, WE'RE FORECASTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA,
WITH SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST AND FAR IT WILL SPREAD FURTHER
NORTH. REGARDLESS, AS THE PARENT LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US MOVES
TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST, THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY
PRECIP MAY START TO ERODE EASTWARD, AND MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS MAY ACTUALLY SE A BREAK IN SNOWFALL LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO
BLOSSOM ANEW, AND MANY AREAS COULD EASILY TACK ON AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO. MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL ON
THURSDAY, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW, FORECAST GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
UNDER ANY INVERSION OF ONLY 20-25KTS, SO IT MAY END UP JUST
BEING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE, VERSUS STRONGER SQUALLS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING, SNOW LIKELY BECOMES CONFINED MOSTLY IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, TAPERING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE LOOK TO GET A COLD SHOT WITH AND BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS A STRONG COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ALSO SEEPS EASTWARD TOWARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - THOUGH THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD IN
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY ONLY AROUND 10 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE COLD AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST, WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOW TEENS IN MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. FULLY EXPECT WE WILL NEED
AT LEAST A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AND
BEHIND THE SNOW SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...
AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY FINALLY CATCH A BREAK
LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY APPROACH NORMAL BY
NEXT SUNDAY. FINGERS CROSSED THAT THIS HOLDS, BUT ALREADY THERE
ARE HINTS OF A POTENTIAL UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME MOST
GUIDANCE SEEMS PRETTY PESSIMISTIC ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH
THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME SITES TAPERING OFF BY THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS ALL AROUND
WITH SOME PLACES UNDER IFR CONDITIONS THAT ARE RECEIVING SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SETTLES DOWN AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS, NOT AFFECTING ANY SITES. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT, BUT
MAY HAVE SOME IFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS, HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING
THAT POTENTIAL WILL END WITH THE SNOW AND CIGS BREAK OUT OF MVFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE DURATION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL BY THE EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M H M M M H M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>521-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ522-
523-526.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-
526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/JZ
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ
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