623
FXUS61 KRLX 171831
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER AMID HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING LINGERS INTO TUESDAY. TURNING VERY COLD NEXT WEEK WITH
A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT MID- WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS QUIETED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON RADAR. NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THESE BANDS WERE
ANTICIPATED, SO ALL WINTER HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO END AT THE
TOP OF THIS HOUR. THIS LEAVES BEHIND ONLY A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT,
AS AN ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS TOUCHING ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS LED TO
THIS ISSUANCE. FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE FORECAST AREA,
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS WITH CALMING WINDS.
FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE
CANCELLATION OF A FEW ONGOING WARNINGS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER, WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO MAINTAIN
VIGILANCE FOR LINGERING HIGH WATER SPOTS, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-
LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY BACKWATER. FORECAST TRENDS
DEPICT THE TUG FORK AND KANAWHA RIVER BASINS TO CONTINUE TO
RECEDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE DRAINING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STRONG PULL OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD MOSTLY OVERCAST
SKIES AMID COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SLUGGISHLY RISE INTO THE MID TEENS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND WEST VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS. THIS BRIEF INTERLUDE
FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BE OVERTAKEN BY SNOW SHOWERS
TRAVELING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MORE TO
COME IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS.
DESPITE SOME PARTIAL SUN, N-NW'LY BREEZES WILL KEEP US MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL, WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20
DEGREES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND OUR FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID-30S
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS INTO OUR SW VA COUNTIES.
THIS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN AN INTERESTING SYSTEM TO SEE HOW THE
FORECAST HAS EVOLVED, AS SO MUCH HAS DEPENDED ON THE POTENTIAL
PHASING BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL US. A FASTER
TROUGH WITH STRONG PHASING COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WHILE A LACK OF PHASING
LIKELY LEADS TO LESSER SNOWFALL.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE LEANING
TOWARDS THE FEATURES NOT PHASING WELL, AT LEAST NOT OVER OUR
REGION, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN
SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. BUT EVEN IF WE MAY NOT
GET A 'BLOCKBUSTER' SNOWSTORM AROUND MIDWEEK, THERE IS STILL A
GOOD CHANCE OF A DECENT, IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED FURTHER
THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO.
MODELS ARE A BIT SPLIT ON HOW FAST PRECIP COMES IN, AS SOME
SHOW A BIT OF SNOW SPREADING IN TO EASTERN KY AND THE TUG FORK
BY MIDNIGHT, WHILE OTHERS HOLD IT OFF A BIT AFTER THAT.
REGARDLESS, BY SUNRISE, WE'RE FORECASTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA,
WITH SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST AND FAR IT WILL SPREAD FURTHER
NORTH. REGARDLESS, AS THE PARENT LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US MOVES
TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST, THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY
PRECIP MAY START TO ERODE EASTWARD, AND MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS MAY ACTUALLY SE A BREAK IN SNOWFALL LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW TO
BLOSSOM ANEW, AND MANY AREAS COULD EASILY TACK ON AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO. MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL ON
THURSDAY, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW, FORECAST GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
UNDER ANY INVERSION OF ONLY 20-25KTS, SO IT MAY END UP JUST
BEING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE, VERSUS STRONGER SQUALLS. BY
THURSDAY EVENING, SNOW LIKELY BECOMES CONFINED MOSTLY IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, TAPERING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE LOOK TO GET A COLD SHOT WITH AND BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AS A STRONG COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ALSO SEEPS EASTWARD TOWARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - THOUGH THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD IN
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY ONLY AROUND 10 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE COLD AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST, WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOW TEENS IN MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. FULLY EXPECT WE WILL NEED
AT LEAST A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH AND
BEHIND THE SNOW SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...
AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY FINALLY CATCH A BREAK
LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY APPROACH NORMAL BY
NEXT SUNDAY. FINGERS CROSSED THAT THIS HOLDS, BUT ALREADY THERE
ARE HINTS OF A POTENTIAL UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME MOST
GUIDANCE SEEMS PRETTY PESSIMISTIC ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH
THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWER CONTINUE TO DWINDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THIS HAS ALSO ALLOWED CLOUDS TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR, WITH A COMBINATION OF VFR/MVFR NOW RULING THE
ROOST ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE. THIS TREND LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY LOW END VFR ON
TUESDAY. A BRIEF BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER TAKES HOLD FOR
TUESDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY VANISH UNDER THE GUISE OF A NEW
DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IMPACTS FROM THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM WILL NOT BE DEPICTED YET WITH THIS LATEST TAF
ISSUANCE.
GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER DOWN THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, GUSTS OF
20-25KTS WILL REMAIN PRESENT ALONG THE HIGHER WV RIDGETOPS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BOUNCING MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EST 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...MEK
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