159
FXUS61 KRLX 172045
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER AMID HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING LINGERS INTO TUESDAY. VERY COLD THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK WITH AREA-WIDE ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS QUIETED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON RADAR. NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THESE BANDS WERE
ANTICIPATED, SO ALL WINTER HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO END AT THE
TOP OF THIS HOUR. THIS LEAVES BEHIND ONLY A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT,
AS AN ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS TOUCHING ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS LED TO
THIS ISSUANCE. FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE FORECAST AREA,
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS WITH CALMING WINDS.
FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE
CANCELLATION OF A FEW ONGOING WARNINGS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER, WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO MAINTAIN
VIGILANCE FOR LINGERING HIGH WATER SPOTS, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-
LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY BACKWATER. FORECAST TRENDS
DEPICT THE TUG FORK AND KANAWHA RIVER BASINS TO CONTINUE TO
RECEDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE DRAINING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STRONG PULL OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD MOSTLY OVERCAST
SKIES AMID COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SLUGGISHLY RISE INTO THE MID TEENS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND WEST VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS. THIS BRIEF INTERLUDE
FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BE OVERTAKEN BY SNOW SHOWERS
TRAVELING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MORE TO
COME IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BE PROGGED AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH A LACK OF PHASING, WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDING MORE SO IN THIS DIRECTION. GIVEN SUCH,
THIS FAVORS AN ALL SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE CWA, WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN PROGGED SNOW TOTALS. FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL
WAVE, ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES,
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS. 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA,
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR SOUTHERN WV AND OUR
SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN SNOW
AMOUNTS REACHING CRITERIA. FURTHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FURTHER NORTH ONCE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK/AMOUNTS
INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY, WHILE TEENS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
TRAVERSING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MUCH NEEDED BREAK TO THE
AREA IN THE FORM OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND COURTESY OF RETURN FLOW,
POTENTIALLY RISING CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, RESULTING IN A CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP
FREEZE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MELTING SNOWPACK.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWER CONTINUE TO DWINDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THIS HAS ALSO ALLOWED CLOUDS TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR, WITH A COMBINATION OF VFR/MVFR NOW RULING THE
ROOST ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE. THIS TREND LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY LOW END VFR ON
TUESDAY. A BRIEF BREAK FROM ACTIVE WEATHER TAKES HOLD FOR
TUESDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY VANISH UNDER THE GUISE OF A NEW
DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IMPACTS FROM THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM WILL NOT BE DEPICTED YET WITH THIS LATEST TAF
ISSUANCE.
GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER DOWN THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, GUSTS OF
20-25KTS WILL REMAIN PRESENT ALONG THE HIGHER WV RIDGETOPS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BOUNCING MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ024-025-033-034.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/GW
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...MEK
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