238
FXUS61 KRLX 180527
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1227 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER AMID HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING LINGERS INTO TUESDAY. VERY COLD THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK WITH AREA-WIDE ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 905 PM MONDAY...
DRIER WEATHER HAS TAKEN HOLD FOR THE NIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERHEAD. RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE TUG FORK AND OHIO RIVER INTO TUESDAY.
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD HAS QUIETED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON RADAR. NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THESE BANDS WERE
ANTICIPATED, SO ALL WINTER HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO END AT THE
TOP OF THIS HOUR. THIS LEAVES BEHIND ONLY A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT,
AS AN ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS TOUCHING ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS LED TO
THIS ISSUANCE. FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE FORECAST AREA,
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS WITH CALMING WINDS.
FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE
CANCELLATION OF A FEW ONGOING WARNINGS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER, WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO MAINTAIN
VIGILANCE FOR LINGERING HIGH WATER SPOTS, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-
LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY BACKWATER. FORECAST TRENDS
DEPICT THE TUG FORK AND KANAWHA RIVER BASINS TO CONTINUE TO
RECEDE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE DRAINING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STRONG PULL OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD MOSTLY OVERCAST
SKIES AMID COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SLUGGISHLY RISE INTO THE MID TEENS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND WEST VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS. THIS BRIEF INTERLUDE
FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY BE OVERTAKEN BY SNOW SHOWERS
TRAVELING ACROSS THE COUNTRY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MORE TO
COME IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BE PROGGED AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH A LACK OF PHASING, WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDING MORE SO IN THIS DIRECTION. GIVEN SUCH,
THIS FAVORS AN ALL SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE CWA, WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN PROGGED SNOW TOTALS. FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL
WAVE, ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES,
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS. 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA,
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR SOUTHERN WV AND OUR
SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN SNOW
AMOUNTS REACHING CRITERIA. FURTHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FURTHER NORTH ONCE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK/AMOUNTS
INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY, WHILE TEENS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
TRAVERSING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MUCH NEEDED BREAK TO THE
AREA IN THE FORM OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND COURTESY OF RETURN FLOW,
POTENTIALLY RISING CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, RESULTING IN A CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP
FREEZE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MELTING SNOWPACK.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...
VFR WILL DOMINATE ALL BUT BKW TODAY ALTHOUGH BKW WILL ONLY HAVE
MVFR CIGS FOR A SHORT WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR
PREVAILS. MAINLY MID CLOUDS, BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON, CIGS WILL
DECREASE IN HEIGHT SLIGHTLY WITH LOW CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THEREAFTER, CIGS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH VFR STILL DOMINATING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE A SNOW SYSTEM ENTERS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT BKW MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 02/18/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L M L L L L L M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H L M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ024-025-033-034.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/JLB
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JZ
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