540
FXUS61 KRLX 180707
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER AMID HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING LINGERS THROUGH TODAY. VERY COLD THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK WITH AREA-WIDE ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SEALS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY MID CLOUDS WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS WILL
NOT BE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA COLD
AND NOT ALLOWING ANYWHERE TO BREAK THE FREEZING MARK. A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE
STEERED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND SLAM RIGHT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION
TO THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING WITH AN INCH OR SO AT THE END OF
THIS PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MAKE THE
SNOW NOT MELT OVERNIGHT PREVENTING SLICK ICY SPOTS, BUT
ACCUMULATION TOWARD THE SOUTH WILL BE MORE PREVALENT MAKING
TRAVELING SOMEWHAT HAZARDOUS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BE PROGGED AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH A LACK OF PHASING, WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDING MORE SO IN THIS DIRECTION. GIVEN SUCH,
THIS FAVORS AN ALL SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE CWA, WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN PROGGED SNOW TOTALS. FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL
WAVE, ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES,
WORKING IN TANDEM WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS. 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA,
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR SOUTHERN WV AND OUR
SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN SNOW
AMOUNTS REACHING CRITERIA. FURTHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FURTHER NORTH ONCE CONFIDENCE IN TRACK/AMOUNTS
INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY, WHILE TEENS
IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
TRAVERSING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MUCH NEEDED BREAK TO THE
AREA IN THE FORM OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND COURTESY OF RETURN FLOW,
POTENTIALLY RISING CLOSE TO NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, RESULTING IN A CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP
FREEZE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MELTING SNOWPACK.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...
VFR WILL DOMINATE ALL BUT BKW TODAY ALTHOUGH BKW WILL ONLY HAVE
MVFR CIGS FOR A SHORT WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR
PREVAILS. MAINLY MID CLOUDS, BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON, CIGS WILL
DECREASE IN HEIGHT SLIGHTLY WITH LOW CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THEREAFTER, CIGS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH VFR STILL DOMINATING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE A SNOW SYSTEM ENTERS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT BKW MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 02/18/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ024-025-033-034.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JZ
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