458  
FXUS61 KRLX 180930  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
430 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
DRIER WEATHER AMID HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY. SIGNIFICANT  
FLOODING LINGERS THROUGH TODAY. VERY COLD THROUGHOUT THE WORK  
WEEK WITH AREA-WIDE ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SEALS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY MID CLOUDS WITH  
SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS WILL  
NOT BE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA COLD  
AND NOT ALLOWING ANYWHERE TO BREAK THE FREEZING MARK. A  
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE  
STEERED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND SLAM RIGHT INTO OUR SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION  
TO THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING WITH AN INCH OR SO AT THE END OF  
THIS PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL SPREAD FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS WITH  
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MAKE THE  
SNOW NOT MELT OVERNIGHT PREVENTING SLICK ICY SPOTS, BUT  
ACCUMULATION TOWARD THE SOUTH WILL BE MORE PREVALENT MAKING  
TRAVELING SOMEWHAT HAZARDOUS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...  
 
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED  
FURTHER SOUTH OVERALL ON THE QPF/SNOW FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM,  
SO WE MAY BE STABILIZING AROUND A SOLUTION AND HAVE INCREASING  
CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME.  
 
SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF  
THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER  
STRIPES OF QPF IN SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS INTO SW VA  
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE  
PRECIP SHIELD TO ERODE, AND THE HUNTINGTON TRI-STATE AREA MAY  
GET A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS  
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US MOVES  
TOWARDS AND THEN OFFSHORE CAPE HATTERAS. IT MAY CONTINUE SNOWING  
IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING  
MOISTURE AND N-NW'LY UPSLOPING FLOW.  
 
HOWEVER, ANY BREAK LOOKS SHORT-LIVED, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF  
SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY MODERATE TO  
HEAVY SNOWFALL. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING CONFINED MORE TO  
THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE  
DETERMINISTIC MODELS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY  
SLIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME MORE SNOW SHOWER  
ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IF IT WERE TO VERIFY.  
 
WINDS WILL SHIFT NW'LY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES  
OVER THE AREA. WE CAN EXPECT LOWLAND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30MPH,  
CALMING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS, GUSTS OF 30 TO  
45MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY  
LEADING TO MORE TREE DAMAGE.  
 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,  
WITH 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS  
ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE  
WINDS PICK UP, IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WIND CHILLS  
BELOW -10F WILL NECESSITATE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE  
MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...  
 
PERSISTENT NW'LY FLOW AND THE LINGERING WEST EDGE OF THE UPPER-  
LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO  
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATER FRIDAY, HIGH  
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK MORE FULLY INTO THE AREA, BRINGING  
SOME DRIER AIR AS WELL AS WINDS SHIFTING AND BECOMING LIGHT,  
CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
LOOKS TO BE ON THE QUIET AND DRY SIDE. THERE REMAIN HINTS OF A  
WEAK SHORT-WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY  
EVENING OR NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE  
AREA, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT POPS ARE KEPT AT SLIGHT  
CHANCE FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON  
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE, BUT THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT  
OF DISAGREEMENT ON THAT. THAT SAID, AT LEAST THE DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS DO SEEM TO BE ALL INDICATING A POTENTIAL MORE POTENT  
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, JUST BEYOND THE OFFICIAL  
FORECAST PERIOD, SO THAT WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO  
MONITOR. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, AND MAY APPROACH NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...  
 
VFR WILL DOMINATE ALL BUT BKW TODAY ALTHOUGH BKW WILL ONLY HAVE  
MVFR CIGS FOR A SHORT WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR  
PREVAILS. MAINLY MID CLOUDS, BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON, CIGS WILL  
DECREASE IN HEIGHT SLIGHTLY WITH LOW CLOUDS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  
THEREAFTER, CIGS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH VFR STILL DOMINATING  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE A SNOW SYSTEM ENTERS THE  
REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT BKW MAY  
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE TUE 02/18/25  
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20  
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...  
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
WITH SNOW.  
 
 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST  
THURSDAY FOR WVZ006-014-015-027-517-519.  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST  
THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034-515-516-518-520.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST  
THURSDAY FOR WVZ521>524-526.  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-  
526.  
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST  
THURSDAY FOR OHZ087.  
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST  
THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST  
THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.  
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST  
THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ  
NEAR TERM...JZ  
SHORT TERM...FK  
LONG TERM...FK  
AVIATION...JZ  
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