897
FXUS61 KRLX 181523
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1023 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER AMID HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING LINGERS THROUGH TODAY. VERY COLD THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK WITH AREA-WIDE ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1022 AM TUESDAY...
NO FORECAST UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS EVERYTHING
CONTINUES TO BEHAVE AS ANTICIPATED.
WIND CHILLS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAVE RISEN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL
THRESHOLDS. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ATTEMPTING TO
PROGRESS IN FROM THE WEST. INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS LIGHT
FLURRIES FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SAW
NO NECESSARY CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SEALS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY MID CLOUDS WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS WILL
NOT BE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA COLD
AND NOT ALLOWING ANYWHERE TO BREAK THE FREEZING MARK. A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE
STEERED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND SLAM RIGHT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING WITH AN INCH OR SO AT
THE END OF THIS PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT THE SNOW FROM MELTING OVERNIGHT
PREVENTING SLICK ICY SPOTS FOR THE MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
TOWARD THE SOUTH WILL BE MORE PREVALENT POTENTIALLY MAKING
TRAVEL SOMEWHAT HAZARDOUS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED
FURTHER SOUTH OVERALL ON THE QPF/SNOW FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM,
SO WE MAY BE STABILIZING AROUND A SOLUTION AND HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME.
SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
STRIPES OF QPF IN SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS INTO SW VA
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD TO ERODE, AND THE HUNTINGTON TRI-STATE AREA MAY
GET A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US MOVES
TOWARDS AND THEN OFFSHORE CAPE HATTERAS. IT MAY CONTINUE SNOWING
IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND N-NW'LY UPSLOPING FLOW.
HOWEVER, ANY BREAK LOOKS SHORT-LIVED, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING CONFINED MORE TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY
SLIDING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME MORE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS IF IT WERE TO VERIFY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NW'LY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
OVER THE AREA. WE CAN EXPECT LOWLAND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30MPH,
CALMING DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS, GUSTS OF 30 TO
45MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
LEADING TO MORE TREE DAMAGE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS
ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE
WINDS PICK UP, IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WIND CHILLS
BELOW -10F WILL NECESSITATE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...
PERSISTENT NW'LY FLOW AND THE LINGERING WEST EDGE OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATER FRIDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WORK MORE FULLY INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
SOME DRIER AIR AS WELL AS WINDS SHIFTING AND BECOMING LIGHT,
CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE ON THE QUIET AND DRY SIDE. THERE REMAIN HINTS OF A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT POPS ARE KEPT AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE, BUT THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DISAGREEMENT ON THAT. THAT SAID, AT LEAST THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS DO SEEM TO BE ALL INDICATING A POTENTIAL MORE POTENT
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY, JUST BEYOND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PERIOD, SO THAT WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND MAY APPROACH NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...
VFR WILL DOMINATE ALL BUT BKW TODAY ALTHOUGH BKW WILL ONLY HAVE
MVFR CIGS FOR A SHORT WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR
PREVAILS. MAINLY MID CLOUDS, BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON, CIGS WILL
DECREASE IN HEIGHT SLIGHTLY WITH LOW CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THEREAFTER, CIGS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH VFR STILL DOMINATING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE A SNOW SYSTEM ENTERS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT THE
OTHER SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ006-014-015-027-517-519.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034-515-516-518-520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ521>524-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/JZ
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ
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