136
FXUS61 KRLX 181847
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER AMID HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING LINGERS THROUGH TODAY. VERY COLD THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK WITH AREA-WIDE ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1022 AM TUESDAY...
NO FORECAST UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS EVERYTHING
CONTINUES TO BEHAVE AS ANTICIPATED.
WIND CHILLS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HAVE RISEN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL
THRESHOLDS. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ATTEMPTING TO
PROGRESS IN FROM THE WEST. INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS LIGHT
FLURRIES FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SAW
NO NECESSARY CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SEALS TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY MID CLOUDS WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS WILL
NOT BE PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA COLD
AND NOT ALLOWING ANYWHERE TO BREAK THE FREEZING MARK. A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE
STEERED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND SLAM RIGHT INTO OUR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING WITH AN INCH OR SO AT
THE END OF THIS PERIOD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT THE SNOW FROM MELTING OVERNIGHT
PREVENTING SLICK ICY SPOTS FOR THE MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
TOWARD THE SOUTH WILL BE MORE PREVALENT POTENTIALLY MAKING
TRAVEL SOMEWHAT HAZARDOUS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA
THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
MIDDAY, BUT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALONG WITH
THE SNOW, WINDS WILL ALSO TURN GUSTY THURSDAY WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE. ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, AND IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE.
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WIND AND SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S, AND LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A FLUFFY CONSISTENCY WITH 20:1 SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. FRIDAY WILL
STILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY. MOST MODELS ARE DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT A FEW MEMBERS
HAVE SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE OF
ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION. WE OPTED TO KEEP THESE SNOW CHANCES
20% OR LESS.
THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT
TO BREAK DOWN ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TIME OF WRITING. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND COULD IMPOSE MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OF CHANGE TO COME AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SCOOTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INFILTRATE EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SAIL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATION
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME AT PKB AND CKB WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT OTHERWISE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE
I-64 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. IN THIS CONCENTRATED AREA, IFR/LIFR
VSBYS WILL BE NESTLED WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS, AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ONCE THEY BEGIN.
THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PROCEED INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE IS SET TO STRETCH DOWN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BREEZY MOUNTAIN GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT THE
OTHER SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M H M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ006-014-015-027-517-519.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034-515-516-518-520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ521>524-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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