867
FXUS61 KRLX 181921
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AMID
PASSING DISTURBANCES. BITTER COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
* HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, RANGING BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES.
* GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO RECEIVE
HIGHER THAN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
* WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS LOFTED
IN FROM THE WEST, WHERE AN ENCROACHING DISTURBANCE IS SET TO
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
PERIOD.
AN EVOLVING DISTURBANCE CHURNING OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL
FEED ON MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
BEGIN AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA, PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL
PREDOMINANTLY AS SNOW STARTING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COALFIELDS. THIS WILL THEN PUSH NORTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ROUTE 50
ANTICIPATED TO FALL WITHIN AT LEAST 50 PERCENT POPS AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW, ATTACHED TO A
STRONG JET STREAK ALOFT, WILL BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, AND IS
ANTICIPATED TO DASH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL THEN PLACE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
BECOME CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A SECONDARY WAVE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WILL RENEW SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HEADING INTO THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
IN REGARDS TO SNOW TOTALS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COALFIELDS AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
FOOTHILLS TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES.
WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE SHARP
CUTOFF FROM THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY DIMINISHES OVERALL TOTALS FROM
THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND UPWARD. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN VERY
LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN TREK THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, WHILE OSCILLATING WHERE THE
DELINEATION BETWEEN A LIGHT DUSTING TO 1-3 INCHES MAY OCCUR
ACROSS OUR NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES. OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
HEADLINES THE WAY THEY ARE, WITH WARNINGS HOISTED UP IN THE
SOUTH AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STRETCHING THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FLOOD WATERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE TODAY DURING THE BRIEF INTERLUDE
FROM ACTIVE WEATHER. RIVER GAGES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER DENOTE
MOST SPOTS IN THE TRI-STATE HAVE CRESTED BETWEEN THIS MORNING
AND NOW, AND SHOULD BEGIN VENTURING BACK BELOW ITS FLOOD STAGE
LATER ON THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AND EVEN
BEYOND, WITH WIND CHILLS YIELDING EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS. WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, FALLING JUST BELOW ZERO IN OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES. WHILE NO
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE WARRANTED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, I DO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS COLD WEATHER SPELL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE CONTINUING TO CONDUCT RESTORATION AND
RECOVERY EFFORTS DOWN SOUTH WHERE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAS
RECENTLY OCCURRED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA
THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
MIDDAY, BUT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALONG WITH
THE SNOW, WINDS WILL ALSO TURN GUSTY THURSDAY WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE. ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, AND IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE.
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WIND AND SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S, AND LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A FLUFFY CONSISTENCY WITH 20:1 SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. FRIDAY WILL
STILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY. MOST MODELS ARE DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT A FEW MEMBERS
HAVE SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE OF
ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION. WE OPTED TO KEEP THESE SNOW CHANCES
20% OR LESS.
THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT
TO BREAK DOWN ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TIME OF WRITING. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND COULD IMPOSE MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGN OF CHANGE TO COME AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SCOOTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INFILTRATE EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SAIL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATION
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME AT PKB AND CKB WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT OTHERWISE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE
I-64 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. IN THIS CONCENTRATED AREA, IFR/LIFR
VSBYS WILL BE NESTLED WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS, AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ONCE THEY BEGIN.
THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PROCEED INTO THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE IS SET TO STRETCH DOWN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BREEZY MOUNTAIN GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT THE
OTHER SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M H M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ006-014-015-027-517-519.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034-515-516-518-520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ521>524-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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