693
FXUS61 KRLX 190811
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
311 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AMID
PASSING DISTURBANCES. BITTER COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
* HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE MOUNTAINS,
RANGING BETWEEN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
* GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64 AND WEST OF I-79 TO
RECEIVE HIGHER THAN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
* WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
SNOW STARTED COMING INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND AT LEAST
LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD OVER THE CWA A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, WITH SNOW ARRIVING AT EVEN CHARLESTON RIGHT AROUND
1AM. SNOW TOTALS DIDN'T CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THIS EVENT - MAYBE
TICKED UP A BIT FOR SOME OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY IN THOSE
AREAS AS THIS IS GOING TO BE A LONG-DURATION EVENT THAT IMPACTS
MOST OF THE AREA IN TWO PHASES OVER 36+ HOURS, SO IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE AS SEVERE AS THEY WOULD BE IF THE SNOW FELL ALL
WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE FIRST PHASE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL LOW
PRECIP SHIELD, WITH THE SECOND BEING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. IN BETWEEN, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AND FAR NORTHERN
AREAS MAY INDEED SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW FROM PHASE 1) BEFORE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE AREA TRIGGERS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY BLOWING FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHEN THEY DO BLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD FOR MID-FEBRUARY, WITH HIGH TEMPS
FORECAST IN THE 20S FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA, AND SOME OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY STAY STUCK IN THE TEENS. QUITE COLD TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-TEENS IN SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REALLY START TO
PICK UP UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD, SO NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE NEEDED
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA
THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY
MIDDAY, BUT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALONG WITH
THE SNOW, WINDS WILL ALSO TURN GUSTY THURSDAY WITH A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE. ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, AND IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE.
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WIND AND SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S, AND LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A FLUFFY CONSISTENCY WITH 20:1 SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. FRIDAY WILL
STILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY. MOST MODELS ARE DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT A FEW MEMBERS
HAVE SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE OF
ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION. WE OPTED TO KEEP THESE SNOW CHANCES
20% OR LESS.
THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT
TO BREAK DOWN ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 635 PM TUESDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IFR OR WORSE
VISIBILITIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN HEAVIER SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A BRIEFER PERIOD OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW SLIDES EAST,
ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT WITHIN THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADS BACK ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 02/19/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M L H L H L M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M M M L M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M M L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ006-014-
015-027-517-519.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-013-
024>026-033-034-515-516-518-520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
WVZ521>524-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK
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