751
FXUS61 KRLX 191517
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1017 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE OHIO RIVER FLOODING LINGERS THROUGH TODAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS FOR TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AMID PASSING DISTURBANCES. BITTER COLD THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...
DUE TO SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONCERNS NOTED ON THE I-77 AND I-79
CORRIDORS TODAY, AND THE NOTION THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, OPTED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW.
AS OF 950 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRESHENED UP POPS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS OUR SNOW STORM IS
UNDERWAY. CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT RANGE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AND OUR THE CHARLESTON METRO VALLEY,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS STARTING TO COME IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COALFIELDS.
AS MENTIONED BELOW BY THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTER, STARTING TO GROW
WEARY OF THE LOWER AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALL BANDS THAT COULD SWEEP IN TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR 12Z MODEL SUITE COMING IN TODAY TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASES IN SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE WARRANTED.
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
* HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE MOUNTAINS,
RANGING BETWEEN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
* GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64 AND WEST OF I-79 TO
RECEIVE HIGHER THAN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
* WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
SNOW STARTED COMING INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND AT LEAST
LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD OVER THE CWA A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, WITH SNOW ARRIVING AT EVEN CHARLESTON RIGHT AROUND
1AM. SNOW TOTALS DIDN'T CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THIS EVENT - MAYBE
TICKED UP A BIT FOR SOME OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY IN THOSE
AREAS AS THIS IS GOING TO BE A LONG-DURATION EVENT THAT IMPACTS
MOST OF THE AREA IN TWO PHASES OVER 36+ HOURS, SO IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE AS SEVERE AS THEY WOULD BE IF THE SNOW FELL ALL
WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE FIRST PHASE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL LOW
PRECIP SHIELD, WITH THE SECOND BEING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. IN BETWEEN, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AND FAR NORTHERN
AREAS MAY INDEED SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW FROM PHASE 1) BEFORE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE AREA TRIGGERS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY BLOWING FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHEN THEY DO BLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD FOR MID-FEBRUARY, WITH HIGH TEMPS
FORECAST IN THE 20S FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA, AND SOME OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY STAY STUCK IN THE TEENS. QUITE COLD TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-TEENS IN SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REALLY START TO
PICK UP UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD, SO NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE NEEDED
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL GIVE A SECOND BOUT OF SNOWFALL
AS IT SLIDES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AS
THE FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TOWARD THE EAST, WRAP
AROUND FLOW WILL AID IN BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND HELP KEEP ACCUMULATIONS GOING FOR AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS.
SOME SNOW CAN GET INTO THE LOWLANDS FROM BANDING, HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, IF ANY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL END BY THE EVENING AND
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO
UPSLOPE SNOW. THIS POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST INTO ALMOST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ONLY 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY
FROM THE WEST THAT SYSTEM COULD CUT OFF MOISTURE AND DRY OUT THE
AREA SOONER. INITIALLY, HAD LOWER CHANCES OF SNOW PREVIOUSLY,
ALTHOUGH THE NEIGHBORS RAMPED UP POPS, THEREFORE INCREASED THEM
TO MATCH UP, BUT STILL THINKING IT MAY CUT OFF EARLIER.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP US SETTLED FOR ONCE THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO THE NEXT PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY,
INCREASED WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY YIELD
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER WINDS DID COME DOWN FROM THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE
THEREFORE THE DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE TO SEE IF THE TREND
CONTINUE IN WHICH CASE WE WOULD NOT NEED AN ADVISORY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS PAST THE AREA SUPPLYING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS
AND SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL REINFORCE MORE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK, HOWEVER MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY
BY THIS TIME FRAME, THEREFORE ACCEPTED CENTRAL GUIDANCE WHICH
WAS A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION KEEPING CHANCES ON THE TABLE FROM
MIDWEEK AND ON. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME STARTING THIS
PERIOD AND GRADUALLY ABOVE SEASONABLE BY THE NEW WORK WEEK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, HENCE THE RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 635 PM TUESDAY...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IFR OR WORSE
VISIBILITIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN HEAVIER SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A BRIEFER PERIOD OF
SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW SLIDES EAST,
ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT WITHIN THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADS BACK ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EST 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H L L H H H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H M H L M
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ006>008-
014>016-018-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-013-
024>026-033-034-515>520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
WVZ028>032-039-040-521-523>526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ083-086-
087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/FK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...FK
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