035
FXUS61 KRLX 191748
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1248 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE OHIO RIVER FLOODING LINGERS THROUGH TODAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS FOR TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AMID PASSING DISTURBANCES. BITTER COLD THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...
DUE TO SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONCERNS NOTED ON THE I-77 AND I-79
CORRIDORS TODAY, AND THE NOTION THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, OPTED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW.
AS OF 950 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRESHENED UP POPS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS OUR SNOW STORM IS
UNDERWAY. CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS SINCE MIDNIGHT RANGE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AND OUR THE CHARLESTON METRO VALLEY,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS STARTING TO COME IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COALFIELDS.
AS MENTIONED BELOW BY THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTER, STARTING TO GROW
WEARY OF THE LOWER AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW
SQUALL BANDS THAT COULD SWEEP IN TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR 12Z MODEL SUITE COMING IN TODAY TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASES IN SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE WARRANTED.
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
* HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE MOUNTAINS,
RANGING BETWEEN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
* GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64 AND WEST OF I-79 TO
RECEIVE HIGHER THAN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
* WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
SNOW STARTED COMING INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND AT LEAST
LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD OVER THE CWA A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, WITH SNOW ARRIVING AT EVEN CHARLESTON RIGHT AROUND
1AM. SNOW TOTALS DIDN'T CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THIS EVENT - MAYBE
TICKED UP A BIT FOR SOME OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY IN THOSE
AREAS AS THIS IS GOING TO BE A LONG-DURATION EVENT THAT IMPACTS
MOST OF THE AREA IN TWO PHASES OVER 36+ HOURS, SO IMPACTS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE AS SEVERE AS THEY WOULD BE IF THE SNOW FELL ALL
WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE FIRST PHASE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL LOW
PRECIP SHIELD, WITH THE SECOND BEING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. IN BETWEEN, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
BREAK IN THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AND FAR NORTHERN
AREAS MAY INDEED SEE VERY LITTLE SNOW FROM PHASE 1) BEFORE AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE AREA TRIGGERS WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY BLOWING FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHEN THEY DO BLOW.
IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD FOR MID-FEBRUARY, WITH HIGH TEMPS
FORECAST IN THE 20S FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA, AND SOME OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY STAY STUCK IN THE TEENS. QUITE COLD TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-TEENS IN SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REALLY START TO
PICK UP UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD, SO NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE NEEDED
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1247 PM WEDNESDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
VIRGINIA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FRIDAY WILL
BE A DRY AND QUIET DAY AREAWIDE, BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE A CHILLY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER
40S FOR MOST. CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH
MOISTURE STUCK WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1247 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS TIME, WHICH
WOULD BE A MUCH DESERVED BREAK FROM RAIN AND SNOW FOR MOST OF US
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE FEBRUARY WEATHER PATTERN. THE ONE TIME PERIOD TO
WATCH FOR WOULD BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND LOOKS RELATIVELY MILD FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REPOSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN MILD OVER OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM WEDNESDAY...
MVFR/IFR CEILING COMBINATION REMAINS NESTLED OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MIDST OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST
BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ALLOWING FOR
A BRIEF LULL ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THE NEXT PHASE OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE AFTER DARK TONIGHT
AND ONCE AGAIN IMPOSE UNFAVORABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
IN REGARDS TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LITTLE TO NO
IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE VALID TAF PERIOD. AIRFIELDS
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WHILE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
RANGE AN UPTICK IN SURFACE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSPIRE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20KT
RANGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT RULES MAY VARY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A RESULT OF PASSING SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L L H L H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L H L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AFTER THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ006>008-
014>016-018-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-013-
024>026-033-034-515>520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
WVZ028>032-039-040-521-523>526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ083-086-
087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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