087
FXUS61 KRLX 200312
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1012 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AMID
PASSING DISTURBANCES. BITTER COLD THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1005 PM WEDNESDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OH AND
CENTRAL KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING STEADY SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MODEL EVALUATION SUGGESTS SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY, WHILE WINDS SHIFT AND
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, TO ACTIVATE THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS
* FIRST WAVE OF SNOW VACATES THE AREA TONIGHT, LEAVING BEHIND
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
* SECOND PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH ON THURSDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
* SNOW SQUALLS LATER IN THE DAY COULD PROMOTE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
* TURNING COLDER BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING BELOW MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15 ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
RADAR TRENDS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST WAVE
OF SNOW WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE TIME OF
WRITING WAS DEPICTED OVER THE GEORGIA/NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER, AND PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A BRIEF LULL IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN OUR LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE LINGERING MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS SO FAR TODAY HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD,
LINING UP NICELY WITH MODEL TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WILL
PROVOKE RENEWED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS NEXT PHASE OF ACTIVITY COULD CONTRIBUTE AN
ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE RAPIDLY DEPARTING EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY, BRINGING OVERALL TOTALS UP TO 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COALFIELDS UP TO THE NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS.
NO NEW WINTER HEADLINE CHANGES WERE INCLUDED WITH THIS UPDATE,
SO WILL MAINTAIN WINTER STORM WARNINGS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST FOR IMPACTS/ACCUMULATIONS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FURTHER NORTH WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THIS STORM.
ACTIVITY QUICKLY TAKES ON AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT THURSDAY EVENING,
WITH SNOW SQUALLS LOFTING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAY HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THESE BANDS TOMORROW FOR POTENTIAL OF QUICK
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, STRONG GUSTS OF WIND, AND LOCALLY HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS.
IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY UPTICK ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. THIS, COUPLED WITH A COLDER BLAST OF AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION, WILL INVOKE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WIND CHILLS FOR
OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS MINUS 5 TO 10 IN OUR SOUTHEAST FOOTHILL ZONES,
AND MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20 FOR THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1247 PM WEDNESDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
VIRGINIA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FRIDAY WILL
BE A DRY AND QUIET DAY AREAWIDE, BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE A CHILLY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER
40S FOR MOST. CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH
MOISTURE STUCK WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1247 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS TIME, WHICH
WOULD BE A MUCH DESERVED BREAK FROM RAIN AND SNOW FOR MOST OF US
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE FEBRUARY WEATHER PATTERN. THE ONE TIME PERIOD TO
WATCH FOR WOULD BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND LOOKS RELATIVELY MILD FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REPOSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN MILD OVER OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS UNDERWAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT BKW
AND NEARBY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS A SATURATED
AIRMASS, UNDER NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT
BKW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION COULD SPREAD NORTH TO AFFECT EKN WITH IFR CONDITIONS
AS WELL, IN ADDITION OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST OVER
OUR AREA TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING INTO THURSDAY. GENERAL ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS SE OH WILL
BE AROUND 06Z, SPREADING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
SNOW ACTIVITY DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY, BUT PARAMETER EVALUATIONS
INDICATE THAT SNOW SQUALLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON
THURSDAY. THESE SQUALL COULD QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND
PRODUCE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ALONG THEIR PATH.
AS THE NEW UPPER LOW EXITS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EVENING, STRONG AND SATURATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO LATE THURSDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT
SOME LOWLAND TERMINALS, INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20KT
RANGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT RULES MAY VARY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A RESULT OF PASSING SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/20/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H L L L M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H L M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H M H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH AFTER THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ006>008-
014>016-018-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-013-
024>026-033-034-515>520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
WVZ028>032-039-040-521-523>526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ516-518-520-522-523-526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ083-086-
087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ
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