200
FXUS61 KRLX 200845
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES INTO THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BITTER
COLD INTO FRIDAY, THEN WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS
* SECOND ROUND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO FOR MANY,
AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS..
* SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS THIS EVENING,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WV, WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.
* HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE, AND MAY START TO CLEAR OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS BY
SUNRISE OR EVEN A BIT BEFORE. AND FOR MORE CENTRAL AREAS FROM
LOGAN TO CHARLESTON AND PARKERSBURG, THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
LATER MORNING AND MIDDAY, BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST. HOWEVER, THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH PERSISTENT SNOW LIKELY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY COULD
PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES.
ONE PARTICULAR ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS ARE THEY MAY
START TO POP UP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO OR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AROUND
MIDDAY, THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA. MOST MODELS THAT CALCULATE A SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER ARE SHOWING VALUES OVER 1.0 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WV. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE NEED FOR SPSS OR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS IF THIS
ACTIVITY DOES MATERIALIZE, ESPECIALLY IN THE PART OF THE CWA
WITHOUT ANY LONG-FUSE WARNING OR ADVISORY. MOST OF THIS LOWLANDS
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN THIS EVENING, BUT UPSLOPE SNOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES
INTO TONIGHT.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR SQUALLS, IT WILL BE GETTING WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
FOR THE LOWLANDS, AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. THOSE WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. THE WORST WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE WE HAVE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EVEN IF WIND CHILLS WON'T BE TOO BAD IN LOWER ELEVATIONS,
GENERALLY TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TONIGHT, IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY, AND MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.
THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S TODAY ARE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1247 PM WEDNESDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
VIRGINIA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FRIDAY WILL
BE A DRY AND QUIET DAY AREAWIDE, BUT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE A CHILLY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER
40S FOR MOST. CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR FOR SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH
MOISTURE STUCK WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1247 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AT THIS TIME, WHICH
WOULD BE A MUCH DESERVED BREAK FROM RAIN AND SNOW FOR MOST OF US
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE FEBRUARY WEATHER PATTERN. THE ONE TIME PERIOD TO
WATCH FOR WOULD BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND LOOKS RELATIVELY MILD FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REPOSITION OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN MILD OVER OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH BKW
STILL REMAINS LIFR TO IFR AT TAF TIME. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LEADING TO
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ONCE THESE LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN, THEY MAY BE HERE TO
STAY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
REGARDLESS OF PERIODS OF SNOW, AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW'LY FLOW
WITH MOISTURE REACHING US FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE AREA OF STEADIER SNOW WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, AND LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN SLOPES BY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDICATIONS
OF A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG SNOW
SQUALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING - GENERALLY 17Z TO 00Z. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
TAKE VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAPIDLY DEGRADE THEM TO LIFR IN
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION, SNOW SQUALLS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30KTS OR MORE, AND EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
SQUALLS, WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE ORDER OF 20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS CALM DOWN FOR MOST LATER TONIGHT, THOUGH WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR ALL LOWER
ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING, BUT MAY PERSIST AT BKW INTO THE
EVENING, AND AT EKN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW, AND ESPECIALLY WITH
SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/20/25
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L M H H M M M H L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H L M M H L H H H L H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ006>008-014>016-018-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005-
013-024>026-033-034-515>520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ028>032-039-040-521-523>526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ516-518-520-522-523-526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ522.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ083-086-087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK
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