268  
FXUS61 KRLX 200858  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
358 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES INTO THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCALLY  
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BITTER  
COLD INTO FRIDAY, THEN WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS  
 
* SECOND ROUND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE  
MORNING HOURS, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO FOR MANY,  
AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS..  
 
* SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS THIS EVENING,  
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WV, WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY  
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.  
 
* HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15  
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PRETTY MUCH  
ON SCHEDULE, AND MAY START TO CLEAR OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS BY  
SUNRISE OR EVEN A BIT BEFORE. AND FOR MORE CENTRAL AREAS FROM  
LOGAN TO CHARLESTON AND PARKERSBURG, THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE  
LATER MORNING AND MIDDAY, BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY  
PERSIST. HOWEVER, THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS, WITH PERSISTENT SNOW LIKELY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE DAY, AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY COULD  
PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES.  
 
ONE PARTICULAR ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS ARE THEY MAY  
START TO POP UP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO OR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AROUND  
MIDDAY, THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA. MOST MODELS THAT CALCULATE A SNOW SQUALL  
PARAMETER ARE SHOWING VALUES OVER 1.0 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,  
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WV. WE WILL NEED  
TO WATCH FOR THE NEED FOR SPSS OR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS IF THIS  
ACTIVITY DOES MATERIALIZE, ESPECIALLY IN THE PART OF THE CWA  
WITHOUT ANY LONG-FUSE WARNING OR ADVISORY. MOST OF THIS LOWLANDS  
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN THIS EVENING, BUT UPSLOPE SNOW  
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES  
INTO TONIGHT.  
 
EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR SQUALLS, IT WILL BE GETTING WINDY  
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING  
FOR THE LOWLANDS, AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE  
MOUNTAINS. THOSE WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING THROUGH  
THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. THE WORST WIND CHILLS  
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE WE HAVE A COLD  
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
EVEN IF WIND CHILLS WON'T BE TOO BAD IN LOWER ELEVATIONS,  
GENERALLY TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO  
TONIGHT, IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY, AND MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.  
THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S TODAY ARE 20 TO 25  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY NOT GET OUT  
OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE ON  
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...  
 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN  
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO START THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY  
BE CUT OFF BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN.  
ALSO, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PERSIST INTO THE  
LATE MORNING ALONG THE PEAKS AND RIDGES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS,  
HOWEVER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THIS.  
 
ONE LAST COLD DAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL NOT BE ABLE REACH ABOVE  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAYTIME AND EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT  
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE  
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND STARTING  
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO ABOVE  
SEASONABLE BY MONDAY. RATHER SUNNY DAYS WITH DRY WEATHER AND  
WARMING TO SEASONABLE OR ABOVE IS THE MAIN THEME AS HIGH  
PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE NEXT PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A CLIPPER  
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE  
LOWLANDS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE MONDAY.  
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF US  
WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO LOW POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
 
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FILLS IN DIRECTLY BEHIND THE  
CLIPPER KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO  
TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS A MORE DIRECT HIT. CHANCES EVEN  
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
MOUNTAINS. A VERY SHORT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT  
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WHICH MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON  
THIS FAR OUT.  
 
A SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO  
APPROACH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN ACROSS THE  
LOWLANDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS REGIME. LEFT  
IN CENTRAL GUIDANCE WITH A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR THE LAST  
PART OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH EQUATED TO HAVING HIGH  
CHANCES TO EVEN LIKELIES THIS FAR OUT FOR DAY 7. MODELS SEEM TO  
BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS  
FORECAST TO PERSIST AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN UNFOLDS AT THIS POINT  
AND BEYOND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...  
 
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH BKW  
STILL REMAINS LIFR TO IFR AT TAF TIME. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE  
FORECAST TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT ROUND OF  
SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LEADING TO  
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING. ONCE THESE LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN, THEY MAY BE HERE TO  
STAY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD,  
REGARDLESS OF PERIODS OF SNOW, AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW'LY FLOW  
WITH MOISTURE REACHING US FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
THE AREA OF STEADIER SNOW WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS, AND LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND  
WESTERN SLOPES BY AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDICATIONS  
OF A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG SNOW  
SQUALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING - GENERALLY 17Z TO 00Z. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD  
TAKE VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAPIDLY DEGRADE THEM TO LIFR IN  
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION, SNOW SQUALLS COULD CONTAIN  
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30KTS OR MORE, AND EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY  
SQUALLS, WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE ON THE ORDER OF 20KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
WINDS CALM DOWN FOR MOST LATER TONIGHT, THOUGH WILL REMAIN GUSTY  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR ALL LOWER  
ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING, BUT MAY PERSIST AT BKW INTO THE  
EVENING, AND AT EKN THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY DIFFER FROM THE  
FORECAST IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW, AND ESPECIALLY WITH  
SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE THU 02/20/25  
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20  
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15  
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H M H  
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M H M L H L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H H L H  
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M H M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M H M H H H M H M H  
 
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...  
 
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
WVZ006>008-014>016-018-027.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005-  
013-024>026-033-034-515>520.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR  
WVZ028>032-039-040-521-523>526.  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST  
FRIDAY FOR WVZ516-518-520-522-523-526.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ522.  
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
OHZ083-086-087.  
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
KYZ101>103.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ105.  
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-  
004.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ  
NEAR TERM...FK  
SHORT TERM...JZ  
LONG TERM...JZ  
AVIATION...FK  
 
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