295
FXUS61 KRLX 201159
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
659 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES INTO THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BITTER
COLD INTO FRIDAY, THEN WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS
* SECOND ROUND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO FOR MANY,
AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS..
* SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW HEAVIER SQUALLS THIS EVENING,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WV, WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.
* HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PRETTY MUCH
ON SCHEDULE, AND MAY START TO CLEAR OUR WESTERN MOST AREAS BY
SUNRISE OR EVEN A BIT BEFORE. AND FOR MORE CENTRAL AREAS FROM
LOGAN TO CHARLESTON AND PARKERSBURG, THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
LATER MORNING AND MIDDAY, BUT SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY
PERSIST. HOWEVER, THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH PERSISTENT SNOW LIKELY THERE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY COULD
PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES.
ONE PARTICULAR ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS ARE THEY MAY
START TO POP UP IN SOUTHEAST OHIO OR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AROUND
MIDDAY, THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA. MOST MODELS THAT CALCULATE A SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER ARE SHOWING VALUES OVER 1.0 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WV. WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE NEED FOR SPSS OR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS IF THIS
ACTIVITY DOES MATERIALIZE, ESPECIALLY IN THE PART OF THE CWA
WITHOUT ANY LONG-FUSE WARNING OR ADVISORY. MOST OF THIS LOWLANDS
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN THIS EVENING, BUT UPSLOPE SNOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES
INTO TONIGHT.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR SQUALLS, IT WILL BE GETTING WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
FOR THE LOWLANDS, AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. THOSE WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. THE WORST WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE WE HAVE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EVEN IF WIND CHILLS WON'T BE TOO BAD IN LOWER ELEVATIONS,
GENERALLY TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TONIGHT, IT WILL STILL BE BLUSTERY, AND MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.
THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S TODAY ARE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO START THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY
BE CUT OFF BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN.
ALSO, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING ALONG THE PEAKS AND RIDGES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS,
HOWEVER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
ONE LAST COLD DAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL NOT BE ABLE REACH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAYTIME AND EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND STARTING
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE BY MONDAY. RATHER SUNNY DAYS WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TO SEASONABLE OR ABOVE IS THE MAIN THEME AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE NEXT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE MONDAY.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF US
WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO LOW POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FILLS IN DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
CLIPPER KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO
TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS A MORE DIRECT HIT. CHANCES EVEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. A VERY SHORT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WHICH MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS FAR OUT.
A SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS REGIME. LEFT
IN CENTRAL GUIDANCE WITH A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR THE LAST
PART OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH EQUATED TO HAVING HIGH
CHANCES TO EVEN LIKELIES THIS FAR OUT FOR DAY 7. MODELS SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN UNFOLDS AT THIS POINT
AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...
THE MAIN SHIELD OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS SHIFTING EASTWARD,
WITH THE BACK EDGE APPEARING TO HAVE CLEARED HTS AND PKB.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN ITS WAKE
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN AREA OF STEADY SNOW. SO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES CAN BE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A MESS THIS MORNING,
AND COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO IFR FAIRLY EASILY AND
QUICKLY, AT LEAST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. EKN AND BKW MAY STAY DOWN
IN IFR FOR THE MOST PART.
HEADING TO THIS AFTERNOON, SOME SITES MAY SEE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME, BUT ALSO DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN LOCALIZED SQUALLS WHICH
WOULD BRING TEMPORARY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY HIT. AS
A RESULT, MOST SITES DO HAVE SOME LOWER TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS,
WITH THE TEMPO GROUPS UP NORTH WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER.
STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-20KTS EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS, AND
20-25KTS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS CALM DOWN FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GUSTY (IF A BIT
WEAKER) FOR EKN AND BKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW, AND ESPECIALLY WITH
SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H L L L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H M L H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H L M M M H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H L L H H H L H H L M H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ006>008-014>016-018-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005-
013-024>026-033-034-515>520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ028>032-039-040-521-523>526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ516-518-
520-522-523-526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ522.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ083-086-087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...FK
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