155
FXUS61 KRLX 201630
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1130 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES INTO THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BITTER
COLD INTO FRIDAY, THEN WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MORE
STEADY SNOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILTER OUT OF THE AREA. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM, WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION LAKE EFFECT STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND UPSLOPE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AREAS WITH UNDER AN INCH MORE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREAS WHERE THE HEADLINES EXPIRE THIS
AFTERNOON. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY STILL BE HAZARDOUS BEYOND THE
EXPIRY SO USE EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IF TRAVELING OFF
PRIMARY STREETS OR FREEWAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS OR SNOW SQUALLS THAT COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IS ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE
CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN PA AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A
PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO LEAD TO PROLONGED LIGHT
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE AND INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN RIDGES.
THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
LEAVING AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS, DO THINK THAT LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WITH TIME, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE LOW
LEVELS AND LIKELY CUTTING OFF MOISTURE FOR ANY MORE SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES BY LATE FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SLOWLY
CLEAR OUT.
OUTSIDE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW, WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25MPH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND AS HIGH AS 40MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS AND COLD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, VERY
COLD WINDS CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH TEEN TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 18 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9AM FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO START THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY
BE CUT OFF BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN.
ALSO, DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING ALONG THE PEAKS AND RIDGES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS,
HOWEVER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
ONE LAST COLD DAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL NOT BE ABLE REACH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAYTIME AND EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND STARTING
SATURDAY AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE BY MONDAY. RATHER SUNNY DAYS WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARMING TO SEASONABLE OR ABOVE IS THE MAIN THEME AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO THE NEXT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE MONDAY.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF US
WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES TO LOW POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FILLS IN DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
CLIPPER KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO
TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS A MORE DIRECT HIT. CHANCES EVEN
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. A VERY SHORT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA WHICH MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS FAR OUT.
A SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS REGIME. LEFT
IN CENTRAL GUIDANCE WITH A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION FOR THE LAST
PART OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH EQUATED TO HAVING HIGH
CHANCES TO EVEN LIKELIES THIS FAR OUT FOR DAY 7. MODELS SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN UNFOLDS AT THIS POINT
AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...
THE MAIN SHIELD OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS SHIFTING EASTWARD,
WITH THE BACK EDGE APPEARING TO HAVE CLEARED HTS AND PKB.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN ITS WAKE
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN AREA OF STEADY SNOW. SO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES CAN BE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A MESS THIS MORNING,
AND COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR DOWN TO IFR FAIRLY EASILY AND
QUICKLY, AT LEAST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. EKN AND BKW MAY STAY DOWN
IN IFR FOR THE MOST PART.
HEADING TO THIS AFTERNOON, SOME SITES MAY SEE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME, BUT ALSO DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN LOCALIZED SQUALLS WHICH
WOULD BRING TEMPORARY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY HIT. AS
A RESULT, MOST SITES DO HAVE SOME LOWER TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS,
WITH THE TEMPO GROUPS UP NORTH WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER.
STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-20KTS EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS, AND
20-25KTS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS CALM DOWN FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GUSTY (IF A BIT
WEAKER) FOR EKN AND BKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW, AND ESPECIALLY WITH
SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H M L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H H L L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L M H L H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ006>008-014>016-018-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005-
013-024>026-033-034-515>520.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ028>032-039-040-521-523>526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ516-518-
520-522-523-526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ522.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ083-086-087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ105.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...FK
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