097
FXUS61 KRLX 201912
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
212 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BITTER COLD INTO FRIDAY, THEN WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO LATE MONDAY EVENING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MORE
STEADY SNOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILTER OUT OF THE AREA. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM, WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION LAKE EFFECT STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND UPSLOPE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AREAS WITH UNDER AN INCH MORE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREAS WHERE THE HEADLINES EXPIRE THIS
AFTERNOON. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY STILL BE HAZARDOUS BEYOND THE
EXPIRY SO USE EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IF TRAVELING OFF
PRIMARY STREETS OR FREEWAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS OR SNOW SQUALLS THAT COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IS ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE
CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN PA AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A
PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO LEAD TO PROLONGED LIGHT
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE AND INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN RIDGES.
THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
LEAVING AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS, DO THINK THAT LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WITH TIME, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE LOW
LEVELS AND LIKELY CUTTING OFF MOISTURE FOR ANY MORE SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES BY LATE FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SLOWLY
CLEAR OUT.
OUTSIDE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW, WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25MPH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND AS HIGH AS 40MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS AND COLD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, VERY
COLD WINDS CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH TEEN TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 18 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9AM FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
AFTER A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY, A LONGER DURATION OF QUIET WEATHER IS SET
TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA,
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AS A RESULT, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
MAKING AN APPEARANCE CLOSER TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
IS PROGGED TO ENSUE DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA BRANCHING ABOVE FREEZING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
THE MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FLOURISH FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND WILL YIELD ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, IMPOSING RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WHILE POCKETS OF A WINTRY MIX/SNOW SETTLE INTO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
PASSING WAVE SCOOTS THROUGH THE AREA, DRYING OUT BRIEFLY AROUND
MIDWEEK, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 40S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, THEN DROPPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE 30S/40S.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 105 PM THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR, WITH OCCASIONAL VFR BREAKS, HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT CKB AND EKN, HOWEVER, OTHER AREAS COULD
CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS IF SNOW PERSISTS.
A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS MAY REDUCE
VISBYS TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT BKW. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER,
HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN.
OUTSIDE OF ONGOING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND REDUCED CEILINGS,
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
AS MID-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW, AND ESPECIALLY WITH
SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ028>032-039-040-521-523>526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ516-518-
520-522-523-526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ522.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/MEK
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...28
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