137
FXUS61 KRLX 210319
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1019 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BITTER
COLD INTO FRIDAY. WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...
SNOW SQUALLS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING. H850 NORTHWEST WINDS AT NEAR 40 KNOTS IS
IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WHILE A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. THE QUESTION ARISES IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, AND THE ANSWER IS NO. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE HIGHER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFFECTING
BKW. THEREFORE, ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER
STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
AS OF 433 PM THURSDAY...
EXTENDED POPS THIS EVENING AS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS UPSTREAM SNOW
SHOWERS ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. 6 OUT OF 9
MODELS MAINTAIN UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS INTO 12-15Z FRIDAY. THEREFORE, ALLOWED POPS TO COVER
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL CWA ATTM, AND
EXTENDED POPS INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 305 PM THURSDAY...
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA IN A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED DUE TO EXPECTED IMPACTS
OF NEAR CRITERIA COLD WEATHER ON ONGOING FLOOD RECOVERY EFFORTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH
ONGOING POWER OUTAGES.
AS OF 1130 AM THURSDAY...
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MORE
STEADY SNOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY FILTER OUT OF THE AREA. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM, WITH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION LAKE EFFECT STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND UPSLOPE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE NORTHERN AREAS WITH UNDER AN INCH MORE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREAS WHERE THE HEADLINES EXPIRE THIS
AFTERNOON. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY STILL BE HAZARDOUS BEYOND THE
EXPIRY SO USE EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IF TRAVELING OFF
PRIMARY STREETS OR FREEWAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS OR SNOW SQUALLS THAT COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STEADY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IS ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE
CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN PA AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A
PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO LEAD TO PROLONGED LIGHT
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE AND INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN RIDGES.
THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT
LEAVING AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS, DO THINK THAT LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WITH TIME, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE LOW
LEVELS AND LIKELY CUTTING OFF MOISTURE FOR ANY MORE SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES BY LATE FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SLOWLY
CLEAR OUT.
OUTSIDE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW, WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES
TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25MPH ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND AS HIGH AS 40MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS AND COLD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, VERY
COLD WINDS CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH TEEN TO SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 18 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9AM FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
AFTER A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY, A LONGER DURATION OF QUIET WEATHER IS SET
TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA,
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AS A RESULT, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
MAKING AN APPEARANCE CLOSER TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
IS PROGGED TO ENSUE DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA BRANCHING ABOVE FREEZING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
THE MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FLOURISH FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND WILL YIELD ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, IMPOSING RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WHILE POCKETS OF A WINTRY MIX/SNOW SETTLE INTO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
PASSING WAVE SCOOTS THROUGH THE AREA, DRYING OUT BRIEFLY AROUND
MIDWEEK, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 40S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, THEN DROPPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE 30S/40S.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 641 PM THURSDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT EKN AND BKW UNDER SNOW
SQUALLS, GUSTING UP TO 24 KNOTS. WEAKER SNOW SQUALL ARE NOTED IN
RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL WV TO AFFECT CRW THROUGH AT LEAST
04Z. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT BKW, EKN ANS
THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS AS NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO PRODUCE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS 6 OUT OF 9 MODELS
SHOWING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.
THE REST OF TERMINALS COULD SEE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS, UNLESS A
STRAIGHT SNOW SHOWER PASSES BY, BRIEFLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS IFR/LIFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOW LEVELS
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE , BUT STAYING
GUSTY 15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE HIGHER NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY DIFFER FROM THE
FORECAST IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AREAS OF SNOW, AND ESPECIALLY WITH
SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY THIS EVENING THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 02/21/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ024-033-
034-516-518-520-522-523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...28/MEK/ARJ
NEAR TERM...28/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page