188
FXUS61 KRLX 210540
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS, WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW MINUS 10 THIS MORNING, SO WILL CONTINUE THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE THE
SNOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING CLOUDS TO
CLEAR. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND, HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
AFTER A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY, A LONGER DURATION OF QUIET WEATHER IS SET
TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE
COURTESY OF EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA,
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AS A RESULT, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
MAKING AN APPEARANCE CLOSER TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND
IS PROGGED TO ENSUE DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA BRANCHING ABOVE FREEZING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
THE MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FLOURISH FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND WILL YIELD ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, IMPOSING RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WHILE POCKETS OF A WINTRY MIX/SNOW SETTLE INTO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
PASSING WAVE SCOOTS THROUGH THE AREA, DRYING OUT BRIEFLY AROUND
MIDWEEK, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 40S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, THEN DROPPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE 30S/40S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE BECOMING VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW THIS MORNING COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 02/21/25
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EST 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ024-
033-034-516-518-520-522-523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...28/MEK/RPY
NEAR TERM...28/RPY
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...RPY
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