258
FXUS61 KRLX 211232
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
732 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARMING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...
INCREASED SN POPS THIS MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT COVERAGE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ADDED IN FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT POPS. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO AN END BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1235 AM FRIDAY...
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS, WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW MINUS 10 THIS MORNING, SO WILL CONTINUE THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE THE
SNOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING CLOUDS TO
CLEAR. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND, HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINT:
* QUIET, WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE WHILE A SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY, REACHING LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE LOWLANDS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS RANGE FROM 30S TO LOW 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEENS TO 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK.
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE PARENT
LOW SKATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE RAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDWEEK AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM PROVIDES ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION. RAIN IS PROJECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 520 AM FRIDAY...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BEFORE BECOMING VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW THIS MORNING COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H M M M H H M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ024-
033-034-516-518-520-522-523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RPY
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