331
FXUS61 KRLX 211723
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING TREND
STARTS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES GRADUALLY TURNS MORE WESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ALREADY SEEING UPSTREAM PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY FADING TO FLURRIES. ACROSS
THE NORTH, SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO DISSIPATING. LITTLE, IF ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INITIALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD YIELD HIGHLY EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL LOW ELEVATION COLD SPOTS AND
MOUNTAINS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WHILE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS.
DESPITE THE COLD START SATURDAY MORNING, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL YIELD A MODEST WARM-UP DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINT:
* QUIET, WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE WHILE A SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE FOR SUNDAY, REACHING LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE LOWLANDS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS RANGE FROM 30S TO LOW 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEENS TO 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK.
AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE PARENT
LOW SKATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE RAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDWEEK AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM PROVIDES ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION. RAIN IS PROJECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL COLDER AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS DISSIPATE FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT THICK ACROSS THE NORTH SOME
BRIEF DIPS TO IFR VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH 21Z OR SO, BUT OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW REMAINS LARGELY
MVFR OR BETTER. SKIES INITIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVORING A NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY
DIRECTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATING OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
VARY SLIGHTLY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EST 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M M H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ABE/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JP
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