943
FXUS61 KRLX 212345
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
645 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A MID
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH KEEPS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR FOR MANY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND STARTS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...
AS THE H850 THERMAL TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING,
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THE SUN IS PEAKING OUT ATTM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WV, NE KY AND SW VA AS SEEN IN OUR LOCAL
WEBCAMS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART OF TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES GRADUALLY TURNS MORE WESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ALREADY SEEING UPSTREAM PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES SHIFT SOUTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY FADING TO FLURRIES. ACROSS
THE NORTH, SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO DISSIPATING. LITTLE, IF ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
INITIALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD YIELD HIGHLY EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL LOW ELEVATION COLD SPOTS AND
MOUNTAINS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WHILE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS.
DESPITE THE COLD START SATURDAY MORNING, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL YIELD A MODEST WARM-UP DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* QUIET WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTING
SOME WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO WHERE EVEN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WARM ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
* NEXT SYSTEM LATE WEEK BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THEN POSSIBLY SNOW ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND
THE GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED PRECEDING THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GRADUAL MELT OF THE SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND, KEEPING
RIVER LEVELS IN CHECK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 640 PM FRIDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO
INCLUDE PKB, CKB AND EKN, WHILE THE H850 THERMAL TROUGH AXIS
BEGIN EXITING NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS TO CRW, HTS AND BKW
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS BECOMING CALM, OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING MAINLY SOUTH LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATING OF MVFR CEILINGS
COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H L L H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L M H M H H H M M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ABE/ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ARJ
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