905
FXUS61 KRLX 220459
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1159 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 AM SATURDAY...
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS AREN'T SHOWING THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND FROM THIS SYSTEM.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME MESO
MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY FLOW TO SQUEEZE SOME PRECIPITATION OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MESO NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE IS TOO
SHALLOW AND MOS POP GUIDANCE AT ELKINS IS 3 AND 0, SO OPTED TO
LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. LOWERED SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO SNOW COVER AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS, IF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DON'T FORM IN THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* QUIET WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTING
SOME WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO WHERE EVEN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WARM ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
* NEXT SYSTEM LATE WEEK BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THEN POSSIBLY SNOW ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND
THE GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED PRECEDING THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GRADUAL MELT OF THE SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND, KEEPING
RIVER LEVELS IN CHECK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1200 AM SATURDAY...
SOME MVFR CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. THAT WILL LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATING OF MVFR CEILINGS
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 02/22/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ABE/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RPY
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