507
FXUS61 KRLX 280913
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
513 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT TODAY BRINGS SOME SHOWERS AND A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND A
FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1210 AM FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SHOWERS, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. A
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO. SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY REACH 80 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD,
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
IN THIS PERIOD THE AREA STARTS OFF RATHER QUIET WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS INCREASING ALONG SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD AND WHICH IS FORECAST TO START A
MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE SOUTH CARRYING IT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE FUNNELING A DISTURBANCE
RIGHT INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY.
A LOT OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEPS US DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING, BASICALLY IF YOU ARE COMPARING THEM TO THE GFS WHO HAS
AN AGGRESSIVE AND MORE WET SOLUTION. THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
HITS HARD ON IT AS WELL, THEREFORE ACCEPTED THE NEW GUIDANCE
AND DID NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS AS MODELS ARE VERY
DIVERGENT THIS EARLY ON. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY THERE WILL
LIKELY BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST OF THERE.
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN AND EURO KEEP US RATHER
DRY. AT THIS POINT THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ANOTHER
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST PHASE TOGETHER ON SUNDAY AND BRING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD
IT ACTS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OUT TOWARD THE EAST WHILE
THE OTHER SYSTEM BRINGS IN ITS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIRECTLY
BEHIND. THIS FRONT, DUE TO TIMING, WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE TOO
MUCH SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA, AS IT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
THROUGH LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
THERE WILL STILL BE AMPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS WITH HIGH PWATS, AMPLE MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY TOO WORK WITH IT WILL
MAKE IT HARD FOR STORMS TO STRENGTHEN AND CARRY ON FOR A LONG
TIME. WITH LOW LCLS AND HIGH HELICITY ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE TORNADIC
ACTIVITY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND, BUT WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SMALL TO LARGE HAIL, AND A POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO OR
TWO.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND WITH PWATS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY
UNDER HEAVY CONVECTION. THE QPF VALUES ARE OVER HALF AN INCH FOR
SUNDAY AND ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH FOR MONDAY, SO THE
AREA SHOULD GET A REAL SOAK THIS TIME AROUND.
ONCE THE FRONT EXITS ON MONDAY, COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE AND MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL CLEAR OUT BY NIGHTFALL, ALLOWING FOR COOLER WEATHER TO
INFILTRATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN LIKELY DROP DOWN TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE. WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE BY THEN, NOT THINKING TOO MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FROST DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING AND THE WARMING
TREND WILL MAKE A COME BACK IN THE NEXT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
WE WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILLING BACK IN FROM THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT WHICH POINT
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE FAST TOWARD OUR REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE WAY OFF AND
THERE IS NO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT POINT THE MODELS GET EVEN WORSE,
THEREFORE ACCEPTED BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE AND CAPPED ALL
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AT 50 PERCENT. WITH THIS MUCH
DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS DIDN'T HAVE CONFIDENCE TO CARRY
LIKELIES INTO DAY 7. PLENTY OF WARM AIR AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN PLACES THE REGION IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN WHICH SEEMS TO STAY
PUT UNTIL THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE WARMING TREND MAKING A COME BACK
STARTING WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 510 AM FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. OUTSIDE OF THESE RESTRICTIONS, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY
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