014
FXUS61 KRLX 281803
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT TODAY BRINGS SHOWERS AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY...
ALLOWED FOR THUNDER OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT AND A FEW OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS,
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
AS OF 1210 AM FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SHOWERS, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. A
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN OHIO. SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY REACH 80 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD, WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY STARTS OFF WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., AND A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY,
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY TO OUR WEST/ALONG
WESTERN ZONES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD, AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY FROM A
PASSING WAVE, AND THIS MAY HINDER SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THE
DAY. IN ADDITION, INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING SOMEWHAT AS WE GO INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD DUE TO THE OVERALL STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP
STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT, SPC IS
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON MONDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS COLD FRONT
AND BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SEVERE RISK THIS DAY AT THIS
POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TRANSPORTED TO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRY SPELL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA MID WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING
RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 510 AM FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. OUTSIDE OF THESE RESTRICTIONS, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page