047
FXUS61 KRLX 281913
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGS
WARM WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER STORMS HAVE PRODUCE PEA-SIZED HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH, AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AMID A DEEP INVERTED-V
SOUNDING.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
SUNSHINE, A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND, LOWLAND TEMPERATURES UP AROUND
80, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE.
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE AGENCIES AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES,
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS FUEL MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE 7 TO 8 PERCENT RANGE.
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AND A DAMPENING
FLAT LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES, WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS FLOW MAY DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FLAT WAVE
GOES BY AND WEAKENS FURTHER. NONETHELESS, MAY NEED ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT SATURDAY FOR SIMILAR WIND GUSTS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, ALONG WITH THE DRY FUELS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT OF A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON LOWS TONIGHT, WHILE A CANOPY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD LIMIT THE DIURNAL RANGE IN THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM REGIME.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY STARTS OFF WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., AND A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY,
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY TO OUR WEST/ALONG
WESTERN ZONES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD, AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY FROM A
PASSING WAVE, AND THIS MAY HINDER SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THE
DAY. IN ADDITION, INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING SOMEWHAT AS WE GO INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD DUE TO THE OVERALL STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP
STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT, SPC IS
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON MONDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS COLD FRONT
AND BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SEVERE RISK THIS DAY AT THIS
POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TRANSPORTED TO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRY SPELL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA MID WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING
RAIN.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WAS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WV
INCLUDING PKB CKB AND EKN, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES, UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, 21Z OR
SO. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD IN A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR.
SURFACE FLOW WILL VARY ACROSS NORTHERN SITES WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND, BUT BE PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTHERN SITES WILL HAVE A MORE PERSISTENT GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND PEAK GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AND THEN INCREASING AND GUSTING INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, UNTIL SURFACE GUSTS RESUME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL VARY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM
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