110
FXUS61 KRLX 290505
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
105 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MODELS SHOW THAT
SOME SHOWERS COULD FORM TODAY, BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL. AN UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A PLUME OF
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA, PROVIDING BETTER CHANCES
OF SOME SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY STARTS OFF WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., AND A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY,
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY TO OUR WEST/ALONG
WESTERN ZONES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD, AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY FROM A
PASSING WAVE, AND THIS MAY HINDER SOME DEVELOPMENT LATER ON IN THE
DAY. IN ADDITION, INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING SOMEWHAT AS WE GO INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD DUE TO THE OVERALL STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP
STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT, SPC IS
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON MONDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS COLD FRONT
AND BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE EXITING TO THE EAST BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SEVERE RISK THIS DAY AT THIS
POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TRANSPORTED TO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRY SPELL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA MID WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING
RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. A COUPLE
OF MODELS SHOW THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD FORM TODAY, BUT CHANCES
ARE SMALL. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A PLUME OF SOUTHERN MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA,
PROVIDING BETTER CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL JET
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE WIND SHEAR AT SOME LOCATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/29/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
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