312
FXUS61 KRLX 290945
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. COOLER AND DRY TUESDAY. ACTIVE MIDWEEK AND ON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MODELS SHOW THAT
SOME SHOWERS COULD FORM TODAY, BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL. AN UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A PLUME OF
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA, PROVIDING BETTER CHANCES
OF SOME SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH US SITTING IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF A BROAD AND POTENT SYSTEM FORECAST TO BE
POSITIONED OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO
ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
FUNNELING UP MOISTURE ALL DAY PROMOTING RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACCORDING TO HI-RES MODELS THE FRONT
WILL NOT GET TO US UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE A BIT OF A MESS DURING THE DAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, HOWEVER IT RAMPS UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY, THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK
WITH AND THE CAPE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE VALUES SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING WILL LIKELY BE LESS WITH SO MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
SUCH AS THERE WILL BE ONGOING ACTIVITY USING UP A LOT OF THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. SO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
AND IF ANY DO COME TO FRUITION THEY WILL LIKELY BE JUST YOUR
AVERAGE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND BE SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. WHAT WE
DO HAVE IS A SATURATED COLUMN, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES,
LOW LCLS AND HIGH HELICITY WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE TORNADIC ACTIVITY LIKELY CONFINED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE AS WELL AS CAPE, THEREFORE INTRODUCING THE IDEA OF
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THAT EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HI-RES MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON A LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY
CROSS OVER INTO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE A LULL FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID
MORNING THEN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND END THE SHORT LIVED
POTENTIAL LULL. MAINTAINED CHANCES OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS ONLY A FEW MODELS INDICATE ITS
POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER, THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE
DAYTIME ON MONDAY. THE GFS HAS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LINE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE AREA WHICH MAY
SLOW THE EXIT DOWN SOME. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE TABLE FOR
MOST OF MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUCH
AS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL CLEAR OUT BY
MONDAY EVENING AND THE REST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS, MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS ADD UP TO
JUST ABOVE AN INCH AREA-WIDE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE EVENT FROM
12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST INVADES OUR REGION BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HINTS AT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OUT OF THIS ONE WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE SINCE IT IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAMES.
AFTER A COOLER TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS DUE TO ADVECT IN WARM MOIST AIR
BRINGING BACK THE WARMING TREND TO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME
ON THURSDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS, HOWEVER THE OTHER TWO
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STALL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE,
ACCEPTED MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE WITHOUT ALTERATIONS DUE TO THE
CONFLICT IN MODEL TIMING. MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON THE AREA
BEING UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS EQUATED TO HIGH END CHANCES OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON AND OFF FOR THE DURATION OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH DAY 7.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. A COUPLE
OF MODELS SHOW THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD FORM TODAY, BUT CHANCES
ARE SMALL. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A PLUME OF SOUTHERN MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA,
PROVIDING BETTER CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL JET
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE WIND SHEAR AT SOME LOCATIONS, AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/29/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY
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