629
FXUS61 KRLX 291631
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. COOLER AND DRY TUESDAY. ACTIVE MIDWEEK AND ON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1045 AM SATURDAY...
AN ALTOCUMULUS CANOPY PERSISTS, IF NOT THICKENS AND LOWERS,
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING TODAY,
AND THEN CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ALLOWED AT LEAST SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY, AND TRIMMED
AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT, ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE WILL
BE MORE EFFECTIVE IN GETTING LOWLAND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES.
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MODELS SHOW THAT
SOME SHOWERS COULD FORM TODAY, BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL. AN UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A PLUME OF
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA, PROVIDING BETTER CHANCES
OF SOME SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1227 PM SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A LONG, TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST, AND AHEAD OF IT WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ANYTIME FROM 06-12Z MONDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS POTENT SYSTEM WITH MODELS INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM 45-55 KTS,
BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
TIMING. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
INSTABILITY PROFILE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
BULLISH, SHOWING 800-1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
ACROSS WESTERN WV, SOUTHEAST OH, AND NORTHEAST KY, WHILE MOST
OTHER MODELS SHOW LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF CAPE AREAWIDE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS IT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY.
BEHIND THIS SQUALL LINE, LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE 30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, WHICH WILL FEEL COOL
COMPARED TO THE 70S AND 80S WE'VE RECENTLY SEEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1227 PM SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH A WARM, SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THERE MAY BE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT, BUT
ONCE AGAIN, INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED. WE WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS AS
WE GET CLOSER, BUT SPC CURRENTLY HAS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A 15% THREAT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN MORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS OF
NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND STALL OUT
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE PROJECTING ANYWHERE FROM 1.25-
1.50" OF PWAT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS CLOSELY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 545 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. A COUPLE
OF MODELS SHOW THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD FORM TODAY, BUT CHANCES
ARE SMALL. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A PLUME OF SOUTHERN MOISTURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA,
PROVIDING BETTER CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL JET
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE WIND SHEAR AT SOME LOCATIONS, AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY. SHOWERS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
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