865
FXUS61 KRLX 291830
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
DISTURBANCES BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, AND
EVENTUALLY, THUNDERSTORMS, CULMINATING IN A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
A DIFFUSE SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING WET
WEATHER AND, PERHAPS EVENTUALLY, THUNDERSTORMS, TO THE AREA
THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SMALLER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WITHIN THE LARGER, DIFFUSE SYSTEM, BUT THE LARGER SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ON UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.
A LEAD WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE BRINGS A ROUND OF
SHOWERS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, AND
THEN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES BRING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
SUNDAY, BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING, AS THE MAIN BODY OF THE
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND DECREASING
RAIN COVERAGE AND EVEN BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL PROMOTE
DIURNAL HEATING, ALLOWING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBILITY.
THE SEVERE THREATS DEPICTED IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WITH SMALL DIURNAL RANGES
WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1227 PM SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A LONG, TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST, AND AHEAD OF IT WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ANYTIME FROM 06-12Z MONDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS POTENT SYSTEM WITH MODELS INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM 45-55 KTS,
BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
TIMING. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
INSTABILITY PROFILE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
BULLISH, SHOWING 800-1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
ACROSS WESTERN WV, SOUTHEAST OH, AND NORTHEAST KY, WHILE MOST
OTHER MODELS SHOW LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF CAPE AREAWIDE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS IT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY.
BEHIND THIS SQUALL LINE, LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE 30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, WHICH WILL FEEL COOL
COMPARED TO THE 70S AND 80S WE'VE RECENTLY SEEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1227 PM SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH A WARM, SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THERE MAY BE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT, BUT
ONCE AGAIN, INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED. WE WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS AS
WE GET CLOSER, BUT SPC CURRENTLY HAS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A 15% THREAT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN MORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS OF
NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND STALL OUT
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE PROJECTING ANYWHERE FROM 1.25-
1.50" OF PWAT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS CLOSELY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, AND THEN A
LARGER DISTURBANCE BRINGS SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA SUNDAY,
BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING.
BKW IS THE SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS THIS
EVENING, WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, BUT EKN MAY ALSO
BE IMPACTED.
ALL SITES ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES DROPPING TO MVFR OR LOWER. MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS MAY SNEAK INTO BKW EVEN EARLIER, DURING HE PRE-
DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING NOR SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT WILL BEGIN TO BECOME A POSSIBILITY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK, FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD, BUT
THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT SOUTH OR VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE A
BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
MORE UNIFORMLY MODERATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING AND EXTENT OF
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MAY VARY, MAINLY SUNDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WIND, BUT A TORNADO AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM
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