642
FXUS61 KRLX 300527
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DISTURBANCES BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, AND
EVENTUALLY, THUNDERSTORMS, CULMINATING IN A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND INSTABILITY, EXPECT SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE ARE IN A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ITEMS WORKING
AGAINST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
SHOWERS TODAY WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING RECEIVED.
LARGE HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES ARE IN FAVOR OF GETTING SOME
SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOS. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1227 PM SATURDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A LONG, TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST, AND AHEAD OF IT WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ANYTIME FROM 06-12Z MONDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS POTENT SYSTEM WITH MODELS INDICATING ANYWHERE FROM 45-55 KTS,
BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
TIMING. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
INSTABILITY PROFILE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
BULLISH, SHOWING 800-1,000 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
ACROSS WESTERN WV, SOUTHEAST OH, AND NORTHEAST KY, WHILE MOST
OTHER MODELS SHOW LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF CAPE AREAWIDE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS IT APPROACHES FROM
CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY.
BEHIND THIS SQUALL LINE, LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE 30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, WHICH WILL FEEL COOL
COMPARED TO THE 70S AND 80S WE'VE RECENTLY SEEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1227 PM SATURDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH A WARM, SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THERE MAY BE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT, BUT
ONCE AGAIN, INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED. WE WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS AS
WE GET CLOSER, BUT SPC CURRENTLY HAS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A 15% THREAT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN MORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS OF
NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND STALL OUT
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE PROJECTING ANYWHERE FROM 1.25-
1.50" OF PWAT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS CLOSELY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A LOW
LEVEL JET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE WIND SHEAR AT SOME
LOCATIONS.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, PROVIDING RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 03/30/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
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