192
FXUS61 KRLX 301226
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
826 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DISTURBANCES BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, AND
EVENTUALLY, THUNDERSTORMS, CULMINATING IN A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 825 AM SUNDAY...
UPDATED MORNING TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER MORNING LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ON ACCOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS, AND FORECAST HIGHS REFLECT A CLIMB OF ONLY 10-15
DEGREES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND INSTABILITY, EXPECT SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE ARE IN A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ITEMS WORKING
AGAINST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
SHOWERS TODAY WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING RECEIVED.
LARGE HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES ARE IN FAVOR OF GETTING SOME
SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOS. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING FROM A PARENT LOW FORECAST TO BE
POSITIONED JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PLACE TO THE NORTH OF US AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PARENT LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND ALLOW THE FRONT TO QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS FASTER MOVEMENT MAY HELP DIMINISH ACTIVITY QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE STARTING TO LOOK LIKE BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS MORE APPARENT WITH THE CURRENT RUN.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO KICK OUT TOWARD THE EAST BY THE
EVENING TAKING MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AWAY WITH IT.
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HI-RES MODELS HAVE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT
WHICH POINT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CLEAR OUT AND
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH.
FOR MONDAY MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON QPF LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH AT LEAST HALF AN INCH EXPECTED WITH SOME
AREAS NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA IS ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
TOTALS TAPER OFF THEREAFTER AND ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF ANY ACTIVITY AND WILL BE CONFINED
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS WV AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE COURTESY OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONABLE DURING THE
DAYTIME, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WARMING TREND
STARTS UP AGAIN IN THE NEXT PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST
TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP WEATHER AT BAY FOR TUESDAY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WE WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR HELPING AMPLIFY TEMPERATURES TO ANOMALOUSLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE. THE PARENT SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THE FEATURE WILL STRETCH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA GIVING LITTLE TO NO REPRIEVE
FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH CHANCES, EVEN PROLONGED LIKELIES,
CARRY FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD INDICATING A VERY ACTIVE TIME
FRAME WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DAILY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO WHERE SPC FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HOIST A
SLIGHT RISK ALREADY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP ITS PERIPHERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA AND
WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FUNNELING IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY.
ITS ONLY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
PUNCHES OUT THE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE MOISTURE
FAUCET AND HELPS TO MOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH NO BREAK IN BETWEEN. THIS IS A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WHERE
THE AREA MAY POTENTIALLY GET PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE WILL LIKELY GET ALONG WITH HIGHER RH VALUES
COURTESY OF THE MOISTURE INFLUX. NOT TO MENTION WIND FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OUTSIDE WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY GUSTY, ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSE
TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO BE ON BOARD WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND THEY ARE NOT FAR FROM BEING IN DECENT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE ACCEPTED THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH EQUATED TO
THE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE PRESENT ON A DAILY BASIS AND NOT
JUST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE MIGHT
NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY WITH
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 535 AM SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A LOW
LEVEL JET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE WIND SHEAR AT SOME
LOCATIONS.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, PROVIDING RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
STRONGER OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
OR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY/TRM
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