988
FXUS61 KRLX 301626
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DISTURBANCES BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, CULMINATING IN A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 825 AM SUNDAY...
UPDATED MORNING TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER MORNING LOWS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ON ACCOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS, AND FORECAST HIGHS REFLECT A CLIMB OF ONLY 10-15
DEGREES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 125 AM SUNDAY...
THE AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND INSTABILITY, EXPECT SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE ARE IN A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ITEMS WORKING
AGAINST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
SHOWERS TODAY WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING RECEIVED.
LARGE HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES ARE IN FAVOR OF GETTING SOME
SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOS. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, DUE TO A POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH SOME CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION, AND SOME MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. JUST LIKE RECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WE'VE SEEN THIS
YEAR, THERE WILL BE AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR (45-55 KTS) FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER OUR
REGION. MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY CAN BE FOUND FARTHER TO THE WEST,
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO, WITH SOME MODELS
DEPICTING 500-1,000 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, THE CONFIDENCE IN OUR AREA RECEIVING SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AND THE BEST CHANCE WOULD PROBABLY BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER WEST VIRGINIA. SPC CURRENTLY
OUTLINES A 15% SEVERE THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THURSDAY
OVER OUR REGION, WITH POTENTIALLY 400-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. IN
ADDITION, THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION (45-55 KTS). GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL 4-5
DAYS OUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DETAILS ARE BLURRY AT THIS TIME, SO
WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES. WITH A FRONT STALLING
OVER OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MORE
DETAILS WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME AS THINGS BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 535 AM SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A LOW
LEVEL JET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE WIND SHEAR AT SOME
LOCATIONS.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, PROVIDING RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
STRONGER OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
OR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
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