923
FXUS61 KRLX 301835
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DISTURBANCES BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, CULMINATING IN A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...
A PAIR OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONSPIRE TO BRING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FIRST,
ACTUALLY TWO THAT MERGE INTO ONE, DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND BEHIND IT AND
FARTHER SOUTH, PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY,
POSSIBLY INDUCING WAVE FORMATION ALONG IT AS IT DOES.
AHEAD OF ALL OF THIS, A MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FLAT WAVE INDUCING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WAS ALSO LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING.
WITH THAT, AND CONVECTION INDUCED UPSTREAM BY THE FIRST OF MID/UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER SUNSET, REPRESENT THE MAIN NEGATIVE
FACTORS IMPACTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE
ALLOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. MODELS SUGGEST MUCAPE CLIMBING
TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE UP THERE, OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OR LINES FORMING WELL OUT TO THE WEST.
MODELS DEPICT MUCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN
FLANK BY 00Z, BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT, AS THE SETTING SUN
REVEALS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA VIA THE LOSS OF THE LATE AFTERNOON MUCAPE
AHEAD OF THE AXIS. MUCAPE IN THE AXIS ALSO TAPERS OFF TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EXTENT OF MUCAPE VALUES OVER
500 J/KG KIND OF SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS REDUCE MAXIMUM MUCAPE IN THAT AREA TO
LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVERNIGHT.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
AROUND 12Z MONDAY, WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
STILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DAWN BREAKS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS WELL SAID IN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DISCUSSION FOR THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, A 50-70 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPSCALE GROWTH OUTLIVES THE FADING MUCAPE. A TORNADO CAN OCCUR
IF THE LINE IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WHEN IT ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS NEXT TO NIL.
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT CROSSES ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD IMPACT ITS TIMING AS
IT TAKES MUCH OF THE DAY TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS MONDAY MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL AGAIN
LIMIT HEATING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MUCAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND ONE LAST
LINE COULD FIRE FARTHER WEST IF THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AGAIN DEPENDING UPON WAVE FORMATION.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TO
GROW AND BECOME SEVERE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH WIND
DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT A TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE, AND THE
LARGE HAIL THREAT AGAIN JUST ABOUT NIL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, DUE TO A POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH SOME CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION, AND SOME MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. JUST LIKE RECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WE'VE SEEN THIS
YEAR, THERE WILL BE AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR (45-55 KTS) FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER OUR
REGION. MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY CAN BE FOUND FARTHER TO THE WEST,
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO, WITH SOME MODELS
DEPICTING 500-1,000 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, THE CONFIDENCE IN OUR AREA RECEIVING SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AND THE BEST CHANCE WOULD PROBABLY BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER WEST VIRGINIA. SPC CURRENTLY
OUTLINES A 15% SEVERE THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THURSDAY
OVER OUR REGION, WITH POTENTIALLY 400-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. IN
ADDITION, THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION (45-55 KTS). GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL 4-5
DAYS OUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DETAILS ARE BLURRY AT THIS TIME, SO
WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES. WITH A FRONT STALLING
OVER OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MORE
DETAILS WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME AS THINGS BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIE IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY ON VISIBILITY,
WERE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY MVFR
OR WORSE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
19-22Z.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE OHIO RIVER SITES PKB AND HTS, IF ANY,
MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WEST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WELL OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE AT FIRST,
AND THEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST. CURRENT TIMING IS 3-5Z
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT WERE CODED UP,
5-7Z CRW AND 6-8Z CKB, THE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FALLING APART
BEFORE REACHING THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS A WAVE MOVES UP
ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO FIRE UP BY
AFTERNOON, AND COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, 18Z MONDAY, IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT
TIMES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE OHIO RIVER NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, 18Z MONDAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY INDUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS DO NOT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE
AREA AT TIMES MID TO LATE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM
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