835
FXUS61 KRLX 310215
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1015 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DISTURBANCES BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, CULMINATING IN A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...
PER COORDINATION WITH SPC, ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SE OH AND NORTHWEST WV UNTIL 3 AM TONIGHT.
AS OF 949 PM SUNDAY...
UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
HAIL AND TORNADOES.
AS OF 450 PM SUNDAY...
ADJUSTED DOWN HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THEY WERE
RUNNING HIGH COMPARED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS RESULTED
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES, ABOUT 3-4
DEGREES LOWER.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST KY MOVING NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A DISTINCTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE IS EVIDENT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY AT THE MOMENT OF WRITING. TRACKING TOOLS AND
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS LINE ARRIVING TO THE TRI-
STATE AREA (OH/KY/WV) AROUND 00Z, AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST
AFFECTING SE OH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, A
STRONGER LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE OH RIVER BY
03-06Z TONIGHT. THIS SECOND LINE MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STAY TUNED ON ANY CHANGES IN WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...
A PAIR OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONSPIRE TO BRING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FIRST,
ACTUALLY TWO THAT MERGE INTO ONE, DRIVES A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND BEHIND IT AND
FARTHER SOUTH, PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY,
POSSIBLY INDUCING WAVE FORMATION ALONG IT AS IT DOES.
AHEAD OF ALL OF THIS, A MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FLAT WAVE INDUCING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WAS ALSO LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING.
WITH THAT, AND CONVECTION INDUCED UPSTREAM BY THE FIRST OF MID/UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER SUNSET, REPRESENT THE MAIN NEGATIVE
FACTORS IMPACTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE
ALLOWING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. MODELS SUGGEST MUCAPE CLIMBING
TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE UP THERE, OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OR LINES FORMING WELL OUT TO THE WEST.
MODELS DEPICT MUCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN
FLANK BY 00Z, BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT, AS THE SETTING SUN
REVEALS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA VIA THE LOSS OF THE LATE AFTERNOON MUCAPE
AHEAD OF THE AXIS. MUCAPE IN THE AXIS ALSO TAPERS OFF TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EXTENT OF MUCAPE VALUES OVER
500 J/KG KIND OF SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS REDUCE MAXIMUM MUCAPE IN THAT AREA TO
LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVERNIGHT.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
AROUND 12Z MONDAY, WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
STILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DAWN BREAKS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS WELL SAID IN THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DISCUSSION FOR THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, A 50-70 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPSCALE GROWTH OUTLIVES THE FADING MUCAPE. A TORNADO CAN OCCUR
IF THE LINE IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WHEN IT ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT IS NEXT TO NIL.
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT CROSSES ON MONDAY, WHICH COULD IMPACT ITS TIMING AS
IT TAKES MUCH OF THE DAY TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS MONDAY MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL AGAIN
LIMIT HEATING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MUCAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND ONE LAST
LINE COULD FIRE FARTHER WEST IF THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AGAIN DEPENDING UPON WAVE FORMATION.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE AMPLE SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TO
GROW AND BECOME SEVERE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH WIND
DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT A TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE, AND THE
LARGE HAIL THREAT AGAIN JUST ABOUT NIL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, DUE TO A POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH SOME CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION, AND SOME MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. JUST LIKE RECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WE'VE SEEN THIS
YEAR, THERE WILL BE AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR (45-55 KTS) FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER OUR
REGION. MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY CAN BE FOUND FARTHER TO THE WEST,
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO, WITH SOME MODELS
DEPICTING 500-1,000 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, THE CONFIDENCE IN OUR AREA RECEIVING SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AND THE BEST CHANCE WOULD PROBABLY BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER WEST VIRGINIA. SPC CURRENTLY
OUTLINES A 15% SEVERE THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THURSDAY
OVER OUR REGION, WITH POTENTIALLY 400-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. IN
ADDITION, THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION (45-55 KTS). GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL 4-5
DAYS OUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DETAILS ARE BLURRY AT THIS TIME, SO
WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES. WITH A FRONT STALLING
OVER OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MORE
DETAILS WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME AS THINGS BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A CANOPY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 4-6KFT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NE KY, AND SE OH AROUND 03-05Z. HAVE CODED
TEMPO GROUPS TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT HTS
AND PKB FROM 03-06Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE OH RIVER. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY EXIST ON HOW FAR EAST STRONG CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE.
NEVERTHELESS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER
CELLS. A LITTLE TRICKY TO TIME CONVECTION AT DETERMINE TERMINALS.
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HRRR MODEL, TIMING THUNDERSTORMS AT CRW WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FROM 05-09Z. DID NOT INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT THE REST OF
EASTERN TERMINAL AS BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN OUT OF FUEL,
DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS A WAVE MOVES UP ALONG
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO FIRE UP BY AFTERNOON, AND
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, 18Z
MONDAY, IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS HAVE LOST THEIR GUSTINESS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEARBY
THE CONVECTIVE LINE. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT GUSTING UP TO 20 OUTSIDE
THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY INDUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WHERE WINDS DO NOT MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. CODED LLWS RESPECTIVELY FOLLOWING THE NBM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/31/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M L M L H L H L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H M
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA AT TIMES MID TO LATE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page