893
FXUS61 KRLX 310554
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS LINE, BUT THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPSLOPE
WIND FLOW WILL SQUEEZE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO TONIGHT. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, DUE TO A POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH SOME CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION, AND SOME MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. JUST LIKE RECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WE'VE SEEN THIS
YEAR, THERE WILL BE AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR (45-55 KTS) FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER OUR
REGION. MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY CAN BE FOUND FARTHER TO THE WEST,
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO, WITH SOME MODELS
DEPICTING 500-1,000 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, THE CONFIDENCE IN OUR AREA RECEIVING SEVERE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AND THE BEST CHANCE WOULD PROBABLY BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER WEST VIRGINIA. SPC CURRENTLY
OUTLINES A 15% SEVERE THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF OUR REGION THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS THURSDAY
OVER OUR REGION, WITH POTENTIALLY 400-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. IN
ADDITION, THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION (45-55 KTS). GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL 4-5
DAYS OUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DETAILS ARE BLURRY AT THIS TIME, SO
WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES. WITH A FRONT STALLING
OVER OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MORE
DETAILS WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME AS THINGS BECOME CLEARER.
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS LINE,
BUT THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. SOME
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CAUSE SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE, A
LOW LEVEL JET COULD CAUSE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ALONG THE COLD FRONT, ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STORM COULD BE SEVERE IN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE, BEFORE
BECOMING VFR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/31/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M L M H M H M H M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H M M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA AT TIMES MID TO LATE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
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