568
FXUS61 KRLX 311851
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN WV AND SW VA. UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SPROUT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WV
ROUGHLY AS EXPECTED, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE OVERALL SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, WITH LOW TO MID-70S IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY, SO THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FUEL FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
DOES HAVE 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN OUR EASTER AREAS, SO WE'LL
NEED TO BE MONITORING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ACTIVITY QUICKLY QUIETS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR AND
ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WIN BY TUESDAY MORNING, AND CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON
EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS AND HUNTINGTON TRI-STATE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THOSE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD END AS A BIT OF NON-
ACCUMULATING SNOW. WE'LL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY, HOWEVER, A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA, AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWNWARD. SOME STORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME COULD BE SEVERE, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES, WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.
WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA DURING BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS, ELECTED TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS MID OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, EXTENDING
INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
VICINITY, AND MEANDER SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA, BRINGING A
RENEWED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY
LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PUMP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION. AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS, AND
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. DRIER WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK
TO TAKE HOLD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FINALLY IS ABLE TO KICK THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 510 AM MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE, BEFORE BECOMING VFR IN ALL BUT SOME
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M H H M H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA AT TIMES MID TO LATE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK
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