227
FXUS61 KRLX 312345
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN WV AND SW VA. UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...
SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SPROUT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WV
ROUGHLY AS EXPECTED, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE OVERALL SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, WITH LOW TO MID-70S IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY, SO THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FUEL FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
DOES HAVE 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN OUR EASTER AREAS, SO WE'LL
NEED TO BE MONITORING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ACTIVITY QUICKLY QUIETS DOWN LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR AND
ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WIN BY TUESDAY MORNING, AND CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON
EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS AND HUNTINGTON TRI-STATE AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THOSE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD END AS A BIT OF NON-
ACCUMULATING SNOW. WE'LL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY, HOWEVER, A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA, AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWNWARD. SOME STORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME COULD BE SEVERE, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES, WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.
WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA DURING BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS, ELECTED TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS MID OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, EXTENDING
INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
VICINITY, AND MEANDER SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA, BRINGING A
RENEWED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY
LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PUMP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION. AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS, AND
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. DRIER WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK
TO TAKE HOLD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FINALLY IS ABLE TO KICK THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. IFR
OR LOWER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND EVEN
POSSIBLE FOR CKB AND CRW. RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY
BE WRAPPING UP BY ~06-08Z, BUT IT IS LIKELY SOME SHOWERS MAY
STILL REMAIN LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MVFR AND IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.
LOW CLOUDS WILL START SCATTERING AND LIFTING BY MID TO LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON.
NW'RLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MAY GUST HIGHER. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO SLACK OFF
LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
LIGHT AND PREDOMINANTLY N TO NNE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN ADVERTISED. TIMING FOR ONSET AND DEPARTURE OF
WIND GUSTS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL
INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L H H H L H L M H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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