684
FXUS61 KRLX 010514
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
114 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIZZLE TAPPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES
DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN TODAY CAUSING CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY, HOWEVER, A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA, AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWNWARD. SOME STORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME COULD BE SEVERE, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES, WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.
WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA DURING BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS, ELECTED TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS MID OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, EXTENDING
INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
VICINITY, AND MEANDER SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA, BRINGING A
RENEWED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY
LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PUMP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR INTO THE REGION. AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS, AND
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. DRIER WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK
TO TAKE HOLD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FINALLY IS ABLE TO KICK THINGS OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
MVFR CONDITONS (WITH SOME IFR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/01/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H L H L H L M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H L H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page