667
FXUS61 KRLX 010900
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOUNTAIN DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES TAPPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TODAY/TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN TODAY CAUSING CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY,
PRIMARILY NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS A DECAYING LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF MORE POTENT ENERGY. GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DO OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT WARM MOIST AIR THAT WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING SUBTLE INCREASES OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 25-30 MPH LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S AROUND
THE TRI-STATE TO LOW-MID 70'S ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS AND
THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING COOLER IN THE UPPER 40'S TO LOW 50'S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60'S WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER
40'S TO LOW 50'S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE OVERTAKEN THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM, LEADING TO AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OHIO, SLOWLY FILTERING EASTWARD INTO WV WITH
TIME. IF THE CURRENT TIMING PANS OUT, THERE WON'T BE MUCH TO WORK
WITH INSTABILITY WISE BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATICS THESE STORMS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ADVERTISED AND COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE MORNING LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OR REINTENSIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
THE COLD FRONT THAT FEATURED PREVIOUS SHOWERS/CONVECTION THURSDAY
MORNING WILL STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA SERVING AS A BOUNDARY
FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO RIDE ALONG EACH DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR AREA EACH DAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE DISLODGES THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND IT EVENTUALLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY UNTIL
THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
A MAJOR CONCERN IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS THE RISK
OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME,
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM CHARLESTON TO CLARKSBURG COULD SEE UPWARDS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER TOTALS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS AND AS SUCH A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING, ALIGNING WHERE WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA
UNDER A DAILY MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATED RANGE, THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE LOCATIONS THAT SEE A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE AXIS OF
TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SETS UP EACH CYCLE, LEADING TO SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING SUBSTANTIALLY MORE RAINFALL THAN OTHERS, EVEN
OVER SHORT DISTANCES. TIMING AND MAGNITUDE WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS
THE EVENT NEARS SO INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE
UPDATES.
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE EACH DAY THURSDAY-SATURDAY BEFORE THE STALLED BOUNDARY EXITS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SOMETIME SUNDAY, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60'S TO LOW 70'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50'S TO LOW 60'S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK, WITH THE LOWLANDS SEEING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50'S WITH UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S
IN THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 500 AM TUESDAY...
MVFR CONDITONS (WITH SOME IFR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/01/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M H M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...RPY
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