909
FXUS61 KRLX 011622
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1222 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH FLOODING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
DID EXTEND FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INCREASED OVERALL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH LATE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES WERE
MADE FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN TODAY CAUSING CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY,
PRIMARILY NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS A DECAYING LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF MORE POTENT ENERGY. GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DO OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT WARM MOIST AIR THAT WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING SUBTLE INCREASES OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 25-30 MPH LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S AROUND
THE TRI-STATE TO LOW-MID 70'S ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS AND
THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING COOLER IN THE UPPER 40'S TO LOW 50'S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60'S WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER
40'S TO LOW 50'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1222 PM TUESDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT, BRINGING ENHANCED PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD AND
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. DRIER WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK
TO TAKE HOLD UNTIL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FINALLY IS ABLE TO KICK THINGS OFF TO THE EAST. A COOLER, AND
SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A TROUGH TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 500 AM TUESDAY...
MVFR CONDITONS (WITH SOME IFR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...FK/RPY
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page