690
FXUS61 KRLX 011757
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH FLOODING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...
DID EXTEND FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INCREASED OVERALL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH LATE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES WERE
MADE FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN TODAY CAUSING CLOUDS
TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 158 PM TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING INTO/THROUGH CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD OVERALL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT ENDS UP BRIEFLY STALLING ON THURSDAY, AND
THESE FACTORS WILL HAVE A SAY IN WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PLUS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. LATEST NAM RUN WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING, WITH CONVECTION
GENERALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA, BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, KEEPING THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH IN THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE, GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY STALL THE FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER REGION,
WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT, BRINGING HEAVY RAINS
TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP,
THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
A DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING TO OCCUR IN OUR NE KY, SE OHIO,
AND WV COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1222 PM TUESDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT, BRINGING ENHANCED PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD AND
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS, AS
WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS, PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. DRIER WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK TO TAKE HOLD UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY IS
ABLE TO KICK THINGS OFF TO THE EAST. A COOLER, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
TROUGH TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 500 AM TUESDAY...
MVFR CONDITONS (WITH SOME IFR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
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