529
FXUS61 KRLX 020227
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1027 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH FLOODING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1026 PM TUESDAY...
UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE LATEST HIRES
MODELS AND HRRR. THIS BLEND DID INCREASE THE GUSTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEY DO COME CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW THOUGH,
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN STEADY VALUES REACHING OR
EXCEEDING CRITERIA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
AS OF 753 PM TUESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY PARTED WAYS FROM OUR AREA AT THIS HOUR,
BUT SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE GONE SLACK AT MOST LOCATIONS AS THE
SUN SETS. EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK BACK UP BY TOMORROW MORNING
AND COULD BE BREEZY OR GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
CLOUDS WERE MORE STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED,
BUT ARE BREAKING UP AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN IN MUCH OF
THE AREA, BUT MOST AREAS ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY AS THEY GET
CLEAR OF CLOUDS. SO MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID-50S THIS AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PUSHES SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OHIO. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SKIRT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
MID-OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE, THERE MAY BE A
BIT OF A BREAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE EXPECTATION OF
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW NIGHT TO START THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A BIT LATER, WITH
LOWER ELEVATION LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES TO THE UPPER
40S IN THE SW PART OF THE CWA, WHILE THE HIGHER RIDGES DROP
INTO THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, WITH DOWNSLOPING SE-S'LY
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY
START RISING SLOWLY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. A
VERY WARM DAY IS LIKELY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA, WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S ARE POSSIBLE. NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON, HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 70S, WITH 50S
AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 158 PM TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING INTO/THROUGH CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD OVERALL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT ENDS UP BRIEFLY STALLING ON THURSDAY, AND
THESE FACTORS WILL HAVE A SAY IN WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PLUS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. LATEST NAM RUN WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING, WITH CONVECTION
GENERALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA, BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, KEEPING THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH IN THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE, GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY STALL THE FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER REGION,
WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT, BRINGING HEAVY RAINS
TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP,
THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
A DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING TO OCCUR IN OUR NE KY, SE OHIO,
AND WV COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1222 PM TUESDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT, BRINGING ENHANCED PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD AND
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS, AS
WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS, PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. DRIER WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK TO TAKE HOLD UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY IS
ABLE TO KICK THINGS OFF TO THE EAST. A COOLER, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
TROUGH TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 742 PM TUESDAY...
CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND SCATTERED AT THE START OF THIS NEW TAF
PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND OVERNIGHT THOUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
REMAIN THOUGH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM EARLY THIS EVENING,
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT. LLWS WAS ADDED FOR MOST SITES UNTIL ABOUT ~12Z
AS SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BKW. WINDS PICK BACK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SHIFTING FROM A NE'RLY DIRECTION TO A SE'RLY
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS FORECASTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER AND CONSOLIDATE BY TOMORROW
MORNING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR OHIO COUNTIES AND ANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF GUSTY WINDS AND LLWS COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 04/02/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC
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