688
FXUS61 KRLX 020534
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH FLOODING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. LOWLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON COULD
TOP OUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN PRODUCE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN
THAT THESE STORMS COULD MIX THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE LESS LIKELY, LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. IN ADDITION, LARGE HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES MEAN THAT
TORNADOS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 158 PM TUESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING INTO/THROUGH CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. CONVECTION
APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD OVERALL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT ENDS UP BRIEFLY STALLING ON THURSDAY, AND
THESE FACTORS WILL HAVE A SAY IN WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PLUS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA. LATEST NAM RUN WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARRIVING THURSDAY MORNING, WITH CONVECTION
GENERALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA, BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, KEEPING THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH IN THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE, GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY STALL THE FRONT IN THE OHIO RIVER REGION,
WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT, BRINGING HEAVY RAINS
TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP,
THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
A DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE
HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOKING TO OCCUR IN OUR NE KY, SE OHIO,
AND WV COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1222 PM TUESDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT, BRINGING ENHANCED PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD AND
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS, AS
WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS, PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. DRIER WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK TO TAKE HOLD UNTIL LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY IS
ABLE TO KICK THINGS OFF TO THE EAST. A COOLER, AND SHOWERY
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
TROUGH TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COULD CAUSE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME CLOUD RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 04/02/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY
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