562
FXUS61 KRLX 021731
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH FLOODING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1055 AM WEDNESDAY...
DID A REFRESH OF MOST FORECAST PARAMETERS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE WARM FRONT
HAS PRESSED THROUGH THE BULK MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE TIME OF WRITING, CONTRIBUTING TO A SHARP RISE IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES
WHO WILL RELISH IN WARMER TEMPERATURES MOMENTARILY.
IN REGARDS TO RADAR ACTIVITY, SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NOW PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY CLIP
PORTIONS OF OUR OHIO COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR, THEN TREKKING
MORE INTO WFO PITTSBURGH'S TERRITORY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS THIS EVENING, BUT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL ENCROACH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...
PUSH BACK THE FLOOD WATCH BY 6 HOURS AS NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING.
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. LOWLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON COULD
TOP OUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN PRODUCE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN
THAT THESE STORMS COULD MIX THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE LESS LIKELY, LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. IN ADDITION, LARGE HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES MEAN THAT
TORNADOS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER, IT SEEMS IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR US TO DESTABILIZE MUCH
AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHICH WOULD HINDER THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS, KINEMATICS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH ESRH VALUES
FAR EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2 AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR, WITH
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AMID ONGOING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND SPOTTY HEATING, ALL OF WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP,
WITH THE MORE STEADY AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER, WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING AND
MOISTURE PLUME COMBINE. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WV, NORTHEASTERN KY, AND SOUTHEASTERN OH
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
FRONTAL FEATURES, WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON BOTH SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THE LONG TERM. AS SUCH, WPC HAS ALL OF
OUR SE OH, NE KY, AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, WITH A MARGINAL FROM ABOUT
CHARLESTON TO CLARKSBURG WESTWARD TO SAID OHIO RIVER ADJACENT
COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WANE SOME ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH
ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HIGH'S THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70'S TO LOW 80'S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID 70'S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE A TAD COOLER IN THE UPPER 60'S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE ALONG SAID
BOUNDARY. THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTAINS THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF RAIN WILL OCCUR BUT SOMEWHAT DIVERGE IN REGARDS TO BOTH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EVEN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS CAN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE RISK
FOR BOTH AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS OUR AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LIKELY WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE
THAT AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A SHARPLY FALLING GRADIENT
DOWN TO AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS, WITH
SOME AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE. IT SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST A BIT MORE CLEAR
AS THE EVENT NEARS AND EACH DAY WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE ACTIVITY THE PRECEDING DAY, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND. WPC HAS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED SE OH FRIDAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY FOR
BOTH SE OH/NE KY, WITH A MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OHIO RIVER
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES, WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE REPETITIVE PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE WAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING AT LEAST, RELATIVELY, DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER AIR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOW TO MID 50'S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS AND UPPER 30'S TO
LOW 40'S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY JUST BEFORE THE 18Z ISSUANCE, RADAR ACTIVITY HAS GROWN
QUIET FOR THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT, SETTING OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.
WHILE VFR CEILINGS REMAIN DOMINANT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A
RIBBON OF MVFR WILL REACH OUR WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL MAKE ITS APPEARANCE AT
TIMES ON THURSDAY UNDER THE GUISE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OBSERVED GUSTS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH,
WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT COULD ALSO YIELD
MOMENTS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
DURING TIMES WHEN SURFACE FLOW BRIEFLY DECOUPLES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M L M M L L M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/RPY
NEAR TERM...MEK/RPY
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MEK
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