716
FXUS61 KRLX 021757
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH FLOODING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1055 AM WEDNESDAY...
DID A REFRESH OF MOST FORECAST PARAMETERS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE WARM FRONT
HAS PRESSED THROUGH THE BULK MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE TIME OF WRITING, CONTRIBUTING TO A SHARP RISE IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES
WHO WILL RELISH IN WARMER TEMPERATURES MOMENTARILY.
IN REGARDS TO RADAR ACTIVITY, SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
HAS TAKEN SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NOW PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY CLIP
PORTIONS OF OUR OHIO COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR, THEN TREKKING
MORE INTO WFO PITTSBURGH'S TERRITORY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS THIS EVENING, BUT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL ENCROACH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...
PUSH BACK THE FLOOD WATCH BY 6 HOURS AS NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING.
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. LOWLAND AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON COULD
TOP OUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN PRODUCE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN
THAT THESE STORMS COULD MIX THESE WINDS TO THE GROUND AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE LESS LIKELY, LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. IN ADDITION, LARGE HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES MEAN THAT
TORNADOS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 156 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY,
SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN/STORMS
ARE LOOKING LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND NORTH
CENTRAL WV IN AREA OF FRONT. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT THINKING IS AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS, THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY, WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THE FRONT
SHOULD HAVE LIFTED WELL TO OUR NORTH, ALONG WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINT:
* FLOODING CONCERNS LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN MIGRATES NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS MAY CREEP IN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH, NORTHWEST WV, AND NORTHEAST KY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES EAST.
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH WHILE AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS OVERHEAD. PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES AND POTENTIALLY
SENDS ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO AN INITIAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND, RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RISES ON RIVERS, CREEKS,
AND STREAMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY JUST BEFORE THE 18Z ISSUANCE, RADAR ACTIVITY HAS GROWN
QUIET FOR THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT, SETTING OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.
WHILE VFR CEILINGS REMAIN DOMINANT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A
RIBBON OF MVFR WILL REACH OUR WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL MAKE ITS APPEARANCE AT
TIMES ON THURSDAY UNDER THE GUISE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OBSERVED GUSTS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH,
WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT COULD ALSO YIELD
MOMENTS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
DURING TIMES WHEN SURFACE FLOW BRIEFLY DECOUPLES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/RPY
NEAR TERM...MEK/RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK
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