918
FXUS61 KRLX 021855
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SERVES UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH FLOODING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR
THE MID-OHIO VALLEY REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SERVE UP POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
* THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SET OFF A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF FLOODING CONCERNS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF STINT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DRAPED ALONG A WARM
FRONT, THE FORECAST AREA HAS RETURNED TO A QUIET STATE FOR THE
TIME BEING. AMPLE SUNSHINE IN TANDEM WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAVE YIELDED QUITE THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STARK
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWLANDS AND THE WV FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS, WHO HAVE BEEN PLAGUED WITH LOW HANGING STRATUS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HERE AT THE FORECAST OFFICE WE'VE CRESTED OVER
THE 80 DEGREE MARK ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOCATIONS IN THE
TRI-STATE AREA NOW MAKING A RUN FOR THE MID 80S BEFORE DIURNAL
HEATING PHASES OUT FOR THE DAY.
AN AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR WHILE WE REMAIN POSITIONED IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS EVENING
WILL BE A LINE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TREKKING
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION, MARKING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE'S
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HOW WELL STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT
COMPOSURE AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
THIS EVENING WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY RISK FOR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. RETAINED PREVIOUS THINKING THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
PETER OUT AS THEY ENCROACH THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT STILL COULD POSE CONCERNS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AT
THE VERY LEAST DUE TO A STRONG 50-70KT LOW LEVEL JET PARKED
OVERHEAD.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FORECAST DEW POINTS RANGING BETWEEN 55 TO 65F WILL BE IN PLACE
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSEYS ON IN FROM
THE WEST. DEPENDING ON HOW OVERNIGHT RADAR ACTIVITY PANS OUT,
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY OOZE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD STILL
ACHIEVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO HELP ENGAGE RENEWED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL HAZARDS
REMAIN IN PLAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AT THE FOREFRONT
OF THE SEVERITY RISK DUE TO THE STRONG JET ALOFT. 12Z RAOB
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AROUND THE REGION PINPOINTED FREEZING
LEVELS BETWEEN 7 TO 10KFT AGL WITH SIMILAR POSITIONING TOMORROW,
WHICH COULD IMPOSE ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE HAIL AS MATURING STORMS
GROW UPWARD. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES DUE TO
DECENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE POTENTIAL, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR PROLONGED HYDRO CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BECOME
STATIONARY ON THURSDAY, WITH EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY AIDING IN
ENRICHING MOISTURE HEADING INTO TOMORROW EVENING. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING TONIGHT TO BEGINNING
CAPTURING THIS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS AS THE GROUND
BECOMES MORE SATURATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 156 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY,
SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN/STORMS
ARE LOOKING LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND NORTH
CENTRAL WV IN AREA OF FRONT. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT THINKING IS AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS, THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER CLOSER TO
THE FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY, WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THE FRONT
SHOULD HAVE LIFTED WELL TO OUR NORTH, ALONG WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINT:
* FLOODING CONCERNS LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN MIGRATES NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS MAY CREEP IN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH, NORTHWEST WV, AND NORTHEAST KY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
FRONT SLOWLY TRUDGES EAST.
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH WHILE AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS OVERHEAD. PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES AND POTENTIALLY
SENDS ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO AN INITIAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND, RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RISES ON RIVERS, CREEKS,
AND STREAMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY JUST BEFORE THE 18Z ISSUANCE, RADAR ACTIVITY HAS GROWN
QUIET FOR THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL PROMPT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT, SETTING OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.
WHILE VFR CEILINGS REMAIN DOMINANT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A
RIBBON OF MVFR WILL REACH OUR WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DRAPED OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL MAKE ITS APPEARANCE AT
TIMES ON THURSDAY UNDER THE GUISE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OBSERVED GUSTS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH,
WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT COULD ALSO YIELD
MOMENTS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
DURING TIMES WHEN SURFACE FLOW BRIEFLY DECOUPLES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK
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