048
FXUS61 KRLX 012123
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
523 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY EVENING. STAYING UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 500 PM THURSDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT PRESENT, WITH STORMS BEING OF THE SUB-SEVERE
VARIETY CURRENTLY. DO EXPECT AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS THROUGH SUNSET AS BETTER UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST, WITH APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING A REGION
THAT HAS EXPERIENCED SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE
MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE IN A FEW INSTANCES. THE
AREA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS NE KY, SE OH, AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WV.
HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO ENCAPSULATE STRONGER
NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF THE ACTIVITY OUT TO
THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL MIXING, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY,
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REPRESENT THE ANTICIPATED COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...
AT THIS HOUR THE REGION RESIDES IN AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR. DIURNAL
UPSLOPE AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS ALREADY WORKED THROUGH A
MODEST CAP, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL TOWERS STARTING TO GO UP ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS INDICATING A QUICKLY ERODING CAP ELSEWHERE.
ELEVATED SHOWERS PRESENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE METRO VALLEY HAVE
KNOCKED DOWN SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES AS THEY CROSSED OVER
AREA UPSTREAM, ALTHOUGH OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND PERHAPS AHEAD
OF (DEPENDING ON TRENDS IN CAP STRENGTH) A LINE OF CONFLUENCE
PRESENTLY WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO WHICH HAS ALREADY SPAWNED
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION.
OVERALL, THE STRONGEST KINEMATICS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER OHIO BEFORE
MOVING UP INTO PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT 1000-1500J/KG OF MLCAPE IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE AMIDST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 35-45KTS, ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AS STRONGER H850 FLOW MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH SOMEWHAT LINEAR NATURE, ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN ANY STRONGER DISCRETE CONVECTION. LARGELY THINK ANY
DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL BE OUT FAR ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES, BUT COULDN'T RULE OUT SOMETHING FORMING UP IN THE
LINE THIS EVENING AS FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE STORM INTENSITY WANE BY 9-10PM AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES. MODEST WARM ADVECTION DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING MAY YIELD PERSISTENCE OF EXISTING UPDRAFTS, OR
NEW ELEVATED ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BLOSSOMING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV, BUT OTHERWISE THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MAY REMAIN MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE FOR MOST WITH BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURSDAY...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND SLIDE DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/ CENTRAL APPALACHIA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW EVOLVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL INFLICT A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY AND WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS.
FOR SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE DRIVEN INTO
THE AREA AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT PIVOTS DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARRIVES BY
DAYBREAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO ENTRENCH THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS COULD
ALSO ENCOURAGE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PROMOTING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER ROUNDS OUT THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO CHURN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO PREVAILING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURSDAY...
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ACTIVE STATE FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER OMEGA BLOCKING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
ANCHORED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
YIELDING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTIVE ANALOGS FOR SEVERE PROBABILITY CURRENTLY PROJECTS THE
RISK STAYING WELL REST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK ALONG THE DRYLINE,
BUT THAT COULD BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON DIURNALLY
INFLUENCED INSTABILITY. GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND
MONDAY IN REGARDS TO THE EASTERN TROUGH'S EVENTUAL DEPARTURE
OFFSHORE, WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES ALSO DURING
THAT TIME. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN CENTRAL GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DAILY 25 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE
60S/70S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, COOLING OFF
INTO THE 40S/50S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDRESS MAINLY WITH VCTS FOR
NOW GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE BUT AMDS MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO
PUT TSRA AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IF STORMS APPROACH. BETTER CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A LINE
OF CONVECTION MOVES IN AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME TSRA TEMPOS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (PKB/HTS/CRW). SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY 1Z AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN SOME 020-030 CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH HEAVY SHOWERS OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H M M
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JP/GW
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JP
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