245
FXUS61 KRLX 021309
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
909 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 910 AM FRIDAY...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 528 AM FRIDAY...
LATEST NAM IS MORE BULLISH THAN THE HRRR SHOWING LARGE CAPE
PROFILES APPROACHING 2,000 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 10K FEET. SEVERE CRITERIA HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE EVENING, ARRIVING
IN OUR KY COUNTIES BETWEEN 6-8PM, WITH SOME CELLS FIRING AHEAD
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
STILL SEEING SOME REMNANT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH
SITS TO OUR EAST. THERE ARE A FEW CELLS TO OUR WEST ACROSS OHIO
THAT ARE SHOWING SOME PERSISTENCE DUE TO A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
OHIO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE CELLS AS THEY ENTER OUR SE OHIO
COUNTIES, BUT NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THEM BECOMING SEVERE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BE A RECIPE FOR SOME VERY PATCHY
VALLEY FOG.
AFTER ANY FOG OR STUBBORN LOW CEILINGS CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
MORNING, EXPECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU TO FORM AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP TO A STEADY BREEZE. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AGAIN TODAY WITH LOWER 80S AND UPPER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RAINFALL
YESTERDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS
FORMING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE BACK ACROSS EASTERN IN/WESTERN OH. ONE OR TWO OF THESE
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE A LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT WILL FORM
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SHOWS AN
MCS FORMING AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE GREATER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO APPALACHIA BY THE EVENING. BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA OF GREATEST
FORCING FROM THE FRONT (NE KY, SE OH, AND A BULK OF THE
LOWLANDS OF WV). THERE IS THE ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A TORNADO TO
OCCUR, EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS NOT OPTIMAL. EMBEDDED ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF OUR OH, KY, AND WESTERN WV COUNTIES
WHEN THE MCV PROPAGATES CLOSER IN THE EVENING.
A FEW DAYS AGO MODELS SHOWED THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH LEFT MEAGER CAPE VALUES EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA.
INSTEAD, THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY LATER
AND THEN PARK ITSELF THERE INTO SATURDAY. THAT SAID, CAPE LOOKS
BETTER NOW, BUT SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ARE STILL BARELY BREAKING
1,000 J/KG IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND LAPSE RATES ARE
MUCH TO BE DESIRED. A BIT OF AN ELEVATED CAPE NOSE IS SHOWN TO
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE LINE THOUGH WHICH MAY HELP THINGS. SOME
3CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE ABOVE 100 J/KG SO WILL BE
CONCERNED OF A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING SOME HAIL AROUND 1.00" OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL OF COURSE BE THE DAMAGING
WINDS.
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE BECOMING MORE OF A POSSIBILITY
TODAY AFTER PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL ON TOP OF WHAT COMES WITH
THESE STORMS LATER TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECASTED TO
BETWEEN 0.75" AND 1.00" SO A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME
HIGHER RAIN RATES. THE FLOODING CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY GOING INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SITS TO OUR WEST KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY OVER THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST BECOMES A CUT OFF LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA ALREADY WET FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
THERE IS AN ELEVATED CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT EITHER NORTHWARD OR EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW THIS LOW WILL SHIFT BASED ON
HOW A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO SHIFT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON EXACTLY HOW
THAT WILL HAPPEN. SOME MODELS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND
FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT LESSER
CHANCES THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US MAY SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL US TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THAT LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA, AND HENCE A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 557 AM FRIDAY...
VFR RESUMES THIS MORNING UNDER BROKEN TO SCATTERED CU. BY MID
TO LATE MORNING, SW'RLY WINDS PICK UP TO A STEADY BREEZE, WHICH
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE THAT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
ALLOWED VCTS AT A FEW SITES WHERE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
EXISTS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN THIS EVENING. CURRENT TIMING IS BETWEEN ~23 AND ~03Z.
STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO 1.00" TO 1.25". MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE LIKELY IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE LINE AS THE
DRIVING COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER. AS A RESULT,
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY GOING INTO SATURDAY.
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC
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